SummaryBackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations.MethodsWe used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.FindingsIn 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). I...

SummaryBackgroundA key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016.MethodsDrawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0–100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita.FindingsIn 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8–98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9–97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5–97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1–24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3–23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2–26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China,...

BackgroundAdverse birth outcomes are major public health problems in developing countries. Data, though scarce in developing countries including Ethiopia, on adverse birth outcomes and the risk factors are important for planning maternal and child health care services. Hence, this study aimed to determine the prevalence and associated factors of adverse birth outcomes among deliveries at Gondar University Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia.MethodsInstitution based cross-sectional study was conducted in February 2013 at Gondar University Hospital. Data were collected by face-to-face interview of 490 women after verbal informed consent using a pretested and structured questionnaire. Gestational age was determined based on the last normal menstrual period. Birth weight was measured following standards. Multiple logistic regressions were fitted and odds ratios with their 95% confidence interval were computed to identify associated factors.ResultsThe mean age of women was 26.2 (±5.2 SD) years. HIV infection among laboring women was 4.8%. About 23% of women had adverse birth outcomes (14.3% preterm, 11.2% low birth weight and 7.1% still births). Women having history of either preterm delivery or small baby (AOR: 3.1, 95% CI 1.1- 8.4) were more likely to have preterm births. Similarly, history of delivering preterm or small baby (AOR: 8.4, 95% CI 2.4- 29.4), preterm birth (AOR: 5.5, 95% CI 2.6- 11.6) and hypertension (AOR: 5.8, 95% CI 1.8- 19.6) were associated factors with low birth weight. Ante partum haemorrhage (AOR: 8.43, 95% CI 1.28- 55.34), hypertension (AOR: 9.5, 95% CI 2.1-44.3), history of perinatal death (AOR: 13.9, 95% CI 3.3- 58.5) and lack of antenatal care follow up (AOR: 9.7, 95% CI 2.7 - 35.8) were significantly associated with still birth.ConclusionsPrevalence of adverse birth outcomes (still birth, preterm birth and low birth weight) were high and still a major public health problem in the area. Histories of perinatal death, delivering preterm or small baby, ante partum hemorrhage, lack of ante natal care follow up and hypertension were associated factors with adverse birth outcomes. Thus, further enhancements of ante natal and maternal care and early screening for hypertension are recommended.

BackgroundTo date, non-communicable diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases, are becoming severe public health challenges particularly in developing countries. Hypertension is a modifiable risk factor that contributes the leading role for mortality. The problem is significant in low- and middle-income countries like sub-Saharan Africa. However, there are limited studies in developing countries, particularly in Ethiopia. Hence, determining the magnitude of hypertension and identifying risk groups are important.MethodsA community based cross sectional study was conducted in April 2013 among adults (age>31 years) old. A systematic sampling technique was used to select a total of 518 study participants. Data were collected after full verbal informed consent was obtained from each participant. Multivariable logistic regressions were fitted to control the effect of confounding. Adjusted Odds ratios (OR) with their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated to measure associations. Variables having P-value <0.05 were considered as significant.ResultsThe overall prevalence of hypertension in Durame town was 22.4% (95% CI: 18.8–26.0). Nearly 40% of hypertensive patients were newly screened. Male sex [AOR  = 2.03, 95% CI; 1.05–3.93], age [AOR  = 29.49, 95% CI; 10.60–81.27], salt use [AOR  = 6.55, 95% CI; 2.31–18.53], eating vegetable three or fewer days per week [AOR  = 2.3,95% CI; 1.17–4.51], not continuously walking at least for 10 minutes per day [AOR  = 7.82, 95% CI; 2.37–25.82], having family history of hypertension [AOR  = 2.46, 95%CI; 1.31–4.61] and being overweight/obese [AOR  = 15.7, 95% CI 7.89–31.21)] were found to be risk factors for hypertension.ConclusionsThe prevalence of hypertension is found to be high. Older age, male sex, having family history of hypertension, physical inactivity, poor vegetable diet, additional salt consumption and obesity were important risk factors associated with hypertension among adults. Community level intervention measures with a particular emphasis on prevention by introducing lifestyle modifications are recommended.

BackgroundNon-adherence to anti tuberculosis treatment is one of the crucial challenges in improving tuberculosis cure-rates and reducing further healthcare costs. The poor adherence to anti-tuberculosis treatment among patients with tuberculosis is a major problem in Ethiopia. Hence, this study assessed level of non-adherence to anti-tuberculosis therapy and associated factors among patients with tuberculosis in northwest Ethiopia.MethodsAn institution based cross-sectional survey was conducted among tuberculosis patients who were following anti-tuberculosis treatment in North Gondar zone from February 20 – March 30, 2013. Data were collected by trained data collectors using a structured and pre-tested questionnaire. Data were entered to EPI INFO version 3.5.3 and analyzed using statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) version 20. Multiple logistic regressions were fitted to identify associations and to control potential confounding variables. Odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval was calculated and p-values<0.05 were considered statistically significant.ResultsA total of 280 tuberculosis patients were interviewed; 55.7% were males and nearly three quarters (72.5%) were urban dwellers. The overall non-adherence for the last one month and the last four days before the survey were 10% and 13.6% respectively. Non-adherence was high if the patients had forgetfulness (AOR 7.04, 95% CI 1.40–35.13), is on the continuation phase of chemotherapy (AOR: 6.95, 95% CI 1.81–26.73), had symptoms of tuberculosis during the interview (AOR: 4.29, 95% CI 1.53–12.03), and had co-infection with HIV (AOR: 4.06, 95% CI 1.70–9.70).ConclusionsNon-adherence to anti-tuberculosis treatment was high. Forgetfulness, being in the continuation phases of chemotherapy, having symptoms of tuberculosis during the interview, and co-infected with HIV were significantly associated with non-adherence to anti-tuberculosis therapy. Special attention on adherence counseling should be given to symptomatic patients, TB/HIV co-infected patients, and those in the continuation phase of the tuberculosis therapy.