Abstract. Temporal variations in the amount of radionuclides released into the atmosphere during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FNPS1) accident and their atmospheric and marine dispersion are essential to evaluate the environmental impacts and resultant radiological doses to the public. In this paper, we estimate the detailed atmospheric releases during the accident using a reverse estimation method which calculates the release rates of radionuclides by comparing measurements of air concentration of a radionuclide or its dose rate in the environment with the ones calculated by atmospheric and oceanic transport, dispersion and deposition models. The atmospheric and oceanic models used are WSPEEDI-II (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) and SEA-GEARN-FDM (Finite difference oceanic dispersion model), both developed by the authors. A sophisticated deposition scheme, which deals with dry and fog-water depositions, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation, and subsequent wet scavenging due to mixed-phase cloud microphysics (in-cloud scavenging) for radioactive iodine gas (I2 and CH3I) and other particles (CsI, Cs, and Te), was incorporated into WSPEEDI-II to improve the surface deposition calculations. The results revealed that the major releases of radionuclides due to the FNPS1 accident occurred in the following periods during March 2011: the afternoon of 12 March due to the wet venting and hydrogen explosion at Unit 1, midnight of 14 March when the SRV (safety relief valve) was opened three times at Unit 2, the morning and night of 15 March, and the morning of 16 March. According to the simulation results, the highest radioactive contamination areas around FNPS1 were created from 15 to 16 March by complicated interactions among rainfall, plume movements, and the temporal variation of release rates. The simulation by WSPEEDI-II using the new source term reproduced the local and regional patterns of cumulative surface deposition of total 131I and 137Cs and air dose rate obtained by airborne surveys. The new source term was also tested using three atmospheric dispersion models (Modèle Lagrangien de Dispersion de Particules d'ordre zéro: MLDP0, Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model: HYSPLIT, and Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment: NAME) for regional and global calculations, and the calculated results showed good agreement with observed air concentration and surface deposition of 137Cs in eastern Japan.

Abstract. Temporal variations in the amount of radionuclides released into the atmosphere during the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station (FNPS1) accident and their atmospheric and marine dispersion are essential to evaluate the environmental impacts and resultant radiological doses to the public. In this paper, we estimate a detailed time trend of atmospheric releases during the accident by combining environmental monitoring data with atmospheric model simulations from WSPEEDI-II (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information), and simulations from the oceanic dispersion model SEA-GEARN-FDM, both developed by the authors. A sophisticated deposition scheme, which deals with dry and fogwater depositions, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation and subsequent wet scavenging due to mixed-phase cloud microphysics (in-cloud scavenging) for radioactive iodine gas (I2 and CH3I) and other particles (CsI, Cs, and Te), was incorporated into WSPEEDI-II to improve the surface deposition calculations. The fallout to the ocean surface calculated by WSPEEDI-II was used as input data for the SEA-GEARN-FDM calculations. Reverse and inverse source-term estimation methods based on coupling the simulations from both models was adopted using air dose rates and concentrations, and sea surface concentrations. The results revealed that the major releases of radionuclides due to FNPS1 accident occurred in the following periods during March 2011: the afternoon of 12 March due to the wet venting and hydrogen explosion at Unit 1, the morning of 13 March after the venting event at Unit 3, midnight of 14 March when the SRV (Safely Relief Valve) at Unit 2 was opened three times, the morning and night of 15 March, and the morning of 16 March. According to the simulation results, the highest radioactive contamination areas around FNPS1 were created from 15 to 16 March by complicated interactions among rainfall, plume movements, and the temporal variation of release rates associated with reactor pressure changes in Units 2 and 3. The modified WSPEEDI-II simulation using the new source term reproduced local and regional patterns of cumulative surface deposition of total 131I and 137Cs and air dose rate obtained by airborne surveys. The new source term was also tested using three atmospheric dispersion models (MLDP0, HYSPLIT, and NAME) for regional and global calculations and showed good agreement between calculated and observed air concentration and surface deposition of 137Cs in East Japan. Moreover, HYSPLIT model using the new source term also reproduced the plume arrivals at several countries abroad showing a good correlation with measured air concentration data. A large part of deposition pattern of total 131I and 137Cs in East Japan was explained by in-cloud particulate scavenging. However, for the regional scale contaminated areas, there were large uncertainties due to the overestimation of rainfall amounts and the underestimation of fogwater and drizzle depositions. The computations showed that approximately 27% of 137Cs discharged from FNPS1 deposited to the land in East Japan, mostly in forest areas.

Five different atmospheric transport and dispersion model's (ATDM) deposition and air concentration results for atmospheric releases from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident were evaluated over Japan using regional (137)Cs deposition measurements and (137)Cs and (131)I air concentration time series at one location about 110 km from the plant. Some of the ATDMs used the same and others different meteorological data consistent with their normal operating practices. There were four global meteorological analyses data sets available and two regional high-resolution analyses. Not all of the ATDMs were able to use all of the meteorological data combinations. The ATDMs were configured identically as much as possible with respect to the release duration, release height, concentration grid size, and averaging time. However, each ATDM retained its unique treatment of the vertical velocity field and the wet and dry deposition, one of the largest uncertainties in these calculations. There were 18 ATDM-meteorology combinations available for evaluation. The deposition results showed that even when using the same meteorological analysis, each ATDM can produce quite different deposition patterns. The better calculations in terms of both deposition and air concentration were associated with the smoother ATDM deposition patterns. The best model with respect to the deposition was not always the best model with respect to air concentrations. The use of high-resolution mesoscale analyses improved ATDM performance; however, high-resolution precipitation analyses did not improve ATDM predictions. Although some ATDMs could be identified as better performers for either deposition or air concentration calculations, overall, the ensemble mean of a subset of better performing members provided more consistent results for both types of calculations.

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The atmospheric transport and dispersion model Modèle Lagrangien de Dispersion de Particules d'ordre zéro (MLDP0) has been in use at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) for several years. The model is employed to support environmental emergency response activities, in the context of CMC's national and international mandates. MLDP0 is a Lagrangian model in which diffusion is modeled according to a random displacement equation (RDE). MLDP0 is an off‐line model and is driven with meteorological fields from CMC's Numerical Weather Analysis and Prediction (NWP) system. MLDP0 can be executed in forward and inverse modes. During the summer of 2008, the important eruptions at Okmok and Kasatochi, in the Aleutians, were cause of considerable concern to aviation, and the model was used extensively to support the Montreal Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC). Qualitative comparisons of satellite imagery and MLDP0 outputs show that the model accurately simulated the behavior of volcanic plumes. Inverse simulations based on SO2 observations of the Okmok plume, at the Washington State University campus in Pullman, Washington, yield emission estimates that agree well with those derived from AURA/OMI. Forward simulations using AURA/OMI SO2 emission estimates for the Kasatochi eruption of 7 August also compare quite well quantitatively with observations from Environment Canada's Brewer spectrophotometers in Toronto, as well as with concentration maps reconstructed from AURA/OMI scans.