In assessments of detrimental health risks from exposures to ionising radiation, many forms of risk to dose–response models are available in the literature. The usual practice is to base risk assessment on one specific model and ignore model uncertainty. The analysis illustrated here considers model uncertainty for the outcome all solid cancer incidence, when modelled as a function of colon organ dose, using the most recent publicly available data from the Life Span Study on atomic bomb survivors of Japan. Seven recent publications reporting all solid cancer risk models currently deemed plausible by the scientific community have been included in a model averaging procedure so that the main conclusions do not depend on just one type of model. The models have been estimated with different baselines and presented for males and females at various attained ages and ages at exposure, to obtain specially computed model-averaged Excess Relative Risks (ERR) and Excess Absolute Risks (EAR). Monte Carlo simulated estimation of uncertainty on excess risks was accounted for by applying realisations including correlations in the risk model parameters. Three models were found to weight the model-averaged risks most strongly depending on the baseline and information criteria used for the weighting. Fitting all excess risk models with the same baseline, one model dominates for both information criteria considered in this study. Based on the analysis presented here, it is generally recommended to take model uncertainty into account in future risk analyses.

Objective: The purpose of this study is to estimate the energy and angular distribution of secondary neutrons inside a phantom in hadron therapy, which will support decisions on detector choice and experimental setup design for in-phantom secondary neutron measurements. Approach: Dedicated Monte Carlo simulations were implemented, considering clinically relevant energies of protons, helium and carbon ions. Since scored quantities can vary from different radiation transport models, the codes FLUKA, TOPAS and MCNP were used. The geometry of an active scanning beam delivery system for heavy ion treatment was implemented, and simulations of pristine and spread-out Bragg peaks were carried out. Previous studies, focused on specific ion types or single energies, are qualitatively in agreement with the obtained results. Main results: The secondary neutrons energy distributions present a continuous spectrum with two peaks, one centred on the thermal/epithermal region, and one on the high-energy region, with the most probable energy ranging from 19 MeV up to 240 MeV, depending on the ion type and its initial energy. The simulations show that the secondary neutron energies may exceed 400 MeV and, therefore, suitable neutron detectors for this energy range shall be needed. Additionally, the angular distribution of the low energy neutrons is quite isotropic, whereas the fast/relativistic neutrons are mainly scattered in the down-stream direction. Significance: It would be possible to minimize the influence of the heavy ions when measuring the neutron-generated recoil protons by selecting appropriate measurement positions within the phantom. Although there are discrepancies among the three Monte Carlo codes, the results agree qualitatively and in order of magnitude, being sufficient to support further investigations with the ultimate goal of mapping the secondary neutron doses both in- and out-of-field in hadrontherapy. The obtained secondary neutron spectra are available as supplementary material.

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The objective of this work is to demonstrate the possibility of performing fast neutron dosimetry up to 5 Sv using optical absorbance of polyallyl diglycol carbonate (PADC) detectors, obtained through grey level analysis of PADC images acquired with a commercial track-counting dosimetry system, and estimate the uncertainties involved. PADCs were irradiated with doses from 100 mSv to 5 Sv (252Cf source) and etched. PADC images were acquired using the TASLIMAGE™ Neutron Dosimetry System (Track Analysis Systems Ltd.) and analysed to obtain the grey levels and the optical absorbance. The absorbance from different detectors and batches was analysed to determine the uncertainties involved, from which the final uncertainty in the method, ~30% and dominated by the uncertainty in the calibration curve, was estimated. A dose estimation <2 Sv can also be performed using a 'universal curve' by normalising the absorbance to that of a detector irradiated with 1 Sv. The data presented here allows the extension of the dose range of track counting systems using no additional equipment, only the images already acquired by the systems.