In addition to population increases, water use in the Santa basin may change. Higher temperatures and lower precipitation in the dry season could lead to more of the flow in the dry season being extracted for irrigation purposes. Economic development in the Santa basin may also increase pressure on the water supply, especially if agriculture in the basin is developed and new intakes for irrigation are planned from the river upstream of the CHAVIMOCHIC intake.

The strategic hydraulic model of the water supply and water distribution system of Belo Horizonte, 3rd largest city in Brazil, was developed based on the various data sources including ArcGIS, ESRI (Geographical Information System), CAD, elevation data, operation data, consumer information and billing information data, and telemetry SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) data. The strategic model consists of app. 13 200 pipes, 126 tanks, 145 pumps, and 387 control valves. Junction node demands were distributed based on the population polygons, measured flows at macro-measurement points, large water users; multiple demand categories were used including residential, commercial, industry, other, and leakage. Macro-calibration of the model was done based on the historical data and based on the selected data from the telemetry data. The macro-calibrated model was linked with OaSys, Telvent SCADA system in order to be prepared for automatic and periodic model update and for the forecasting simulations. Tailored demand forecasting module was developed for estimating water demands for the predictive extended period simulations based on the historical and current demand and meteorological data. The experience from developing off-line and on-line strategic model of Belo Horizonte including GIS and SCADA link is discussed in this paper.

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