Understanding climate risk is crucial for effective adaptation action, and a number of assessment methodologies have emerged. We argue that the dynamics of the individual components in climate risk and vulnerability assessments has received little attention. In order to highlight this, we systematically reviewed 42 sub-national climate risk and vulnerability assessments. We analysed the assessments using an analytical framework with which we evaluated (1) the conceptual approaches to vulnerability and exposure used, (2) if current or future risks were assessed, and (3) if and how changes over time (i.e. dynamics) were considered. Of the reviewed assessments, over half addressed future risks or vulnerability; and of these future-oriented studies, less than 1/3 considered both vulnerability and exposure dynamics. While the number of studies that include dynamics is growing, and while all studies included socio-economic aspects, often only biophysical dynamics was taken into account. We discuss the challenges of assessing socioeconomic and spatial dynamics, particularly the poor availability of data and methods. We suggest that future-oriented studies assessing risk dynamics would benefit from larger stakeholder involvement, discussion of the assessment purpose, the use of multiple methods, inclusion of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses and pathway approaches.

Abstract. Methane emissions from boreal and arctic wetlands, lakes, and rivers are expected to increase in response to warming and associated permafrost thaw. However, the lack of appropriate land cover datasets for scaling field-measured methane emissions to circumpolar scales has contributed to a large uncertainty for our understanding of present-day and future methane emissions. Here we present the Boreal–Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD), a land cover dataset based on an expert assessment, extrapolated using random forest modelling from available spatial datasets of climate, topography, soils, permafrost conditions, vegetation, wetlands, and surface water extents and dynamics. In BAWLD, we estimate the fractional coverage of five wetland, seven lake, and three river classes within 0.5 × 0.5∘ grid cells that cover the northern boreal and tundra biomes (17 % of the global land surface). Land cover classes were defined using criteria that ensured distinct methane emissions among classes, as indicated by a co-developed comprehensive dataset of methane flux observations. In BAWLD, wetlands occupied 3.2 × 106 km2 (14 % of domain) with a 95 % confidence interval between 2.8 and 3.8 × 106 km2. Bog, fen, and permafrost bog were the most abundant wetland classes, covering ∼ 28 % each of the total wetland area, while the highest-methane-emitting marsh and tundra wetland classes occupied 5 % and 12 %, respectively. Lakes, defined to include all lentic open-water ecosystems regardless of size, covered 1.4 × 106 km2 (6 % of domain). Low-methane-emitting large lakes (>10 km2) and glacial lakes jointly represented 78 % of the total lake area, while high-emitting peatland and yedoma lakes covered 18 % and 4 %, respectively. Small (<0.1 km2) glacial, peatland, and yedoma lakes combined covered 17 % of the total lake area but contributed disproportionally to the overall spatial uncertainty in lake area with a 95 % confidence interval between 0.15 and 0.38 × 106 km2. Rivers and streams were estimated to cover 0.12  × 106 km2 (0.5 % of domain), of which 8 % was associated with high-methane-emitting headwaters that drain organic-rich landscapes. Distinct combinations of spatially co-occurring wetland and lake classes were identified across the BAWLD domain, allowing for the mapping of “wetscapes” that have characteristic methane emission magnitudes and sensitivities to climate change at regional scales. With BAWLD, we provide a dataset which avoids double-accounting of wetland, lake, and river extents and which includes confidence intervals for each land cover class. As such, BAWLD will be suitable for many hydrological and biogeochemical modelling and upscaling efforts for the northern boreal and arctic region, in particular those aimed at improving assessments of current and future methane emissions. Data are freely available at https://doi.org/10.18739/A2C824F9X (Olefeldt et al., 2021).

Vegetation in the arctic tundra typically consists of a small-scale mosaic of plant communities, with species differing in growth forms, seasonality, and biogeochemical properties. Characterization of this variation is essential for understanding and modeling the functioning of the arctic tundra in global carbon cycling, as well as for evaluating the resolution requirements for remote sensing. Our objective was to quantify the seasonal development of the leaf-area index (LAI) and its variation among plant communities in the arctic tundra near Tiksi, coastal Siberia, consisting of graminoid, dwarf shrub, moss, and lichen vegetation. We measured the LAI in the field and used two very-high-spatial resolution multispectral satellite images (QuickBird and WorldView-2), acquired at different phenological stages, to predict landscape-scale patterns. We used the empirical relationships between the plant community-specific LAI and degree-day accumulation (0°C threshold) and quantified the relationship between the LAI and satellite NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index). Due to the temporal difference between the field data and satellite images, the LAI was approximated for the imagery dates, using the empirical model. LAI explained variation in the NDVI values well (R 2 adj. 0.42-0.92). Of the plant functional types, the graminoid LAI showed the largest seasonal amplitudes and was the main cause of the varying spatial patterns of the NDVI and the related LAI between the two images. Our results illustrate how the short growing season, rapid development of the LAI, yearly climatic variation, and timing of the satellite data should be accounted for in matching imagery and field verification data in the Arctic region.

We systematically reviewed current climate change literature in order to examine how multiple processes that affect human vulnerability have been studied. Of the 125 reviewed articles, 79 % were published after 2009. There are numerous concepts that point out to stressors other than climate change that were used in reviewed studies. These different concepts were used interchangeably and they illustrate processes that act on different scales. Most widely used concepts included non-climatic (40% of the articles), multiple stressors (38%) and other factors (37%). About 75% of the studies either acknowledged or carefully analyzed the social and environmental context in which vulnerability is experienced. One third of the studies recognized climate change related stressors as the most important, one third argued that stressors other than climate are more important and the rest of the studies did not analyze the relative importance of the different processes. Interactions between different stressors were mentioned in 76% and analyzed explicitly in 28% of the articles. Our review shows that there are studies that analyze the social context of vulnerability within climate change related literature and this literature is rapidly expanding. Reviewed studies point out that there are multiple interacting stressors, whose interlinkages need to be carefully analyzed and targeted by policies, which integrate adaptation to climate change and other stressors. In conclusion, we suggest that future studies should include analytical frameworks that reflect dissimilarities between different types of stressors, methodological triangulation to identify key stressors and analysis of interactions between multiple stressors across different scales.

Across the Arctic, the net ecosystem carbon (C) balance of tundra ecosystems is highly uncertain due to substantial temporal variability of C fluxes and to landscape heterogeneity. We modeled both carbon dioxide (CO ) and methane (CH ) fluxes for the dominant land cover types in a ~100-km sub-Arctic tundra region in northeast European Russia for the period of 2006-2015 using process-based biogeochemical models. Modeled net annual CO fluxes ranged from -300 g C m year [net uptake] in a willow fen to 3 g C m year [net source] in dry lichen tundra. Modeled annual CH emissions ranged from -0.2 to 22.3 g C m year at a peat plateau site and a willow fen site, respectively. Interannual variability over the decade was relatively small (20%-25%) in comparison with variability among the land cover types (150%). Using high-resolution land cover classification, the region was a net sink of atmospheric CO across most land cover types but a net source of CH to the atmosphere due to high emissions from permafrost-free fens. Using a lower resolution for land cover classification resulted in a 20%-65% underestimation of regional CH flux relative to high-resolution classification and smaller (10%) overestimation of regional CO uptake due to the underestimation of wetland area by 60%. The relative fraction of uplands versus wetlands was key to determining the net regional C balance at this and other Arctic tundra sites because wetlands were hot spots for C cycling in Arctic tundra ecosystems.