Cryptocurrencies have recently captured the interest of the econometric literature, with several works trying to address the existence of bubbles in the price dynamics of Bitcoins and other cryptoassets. Extremely rapid price accelerations, often referred to as explosive behaviors, followed by drastic drops pose high risks to investors. From a risk management perspective, testing the explosiveness of individual cryptocurrency time series is not the only crucial issue. Investigating co-explosivity in the cryptoassets, i.e., whether explosivity in one cryptocurrency leads to explosivity in other cryptocurrencies, allows indeed to take into account possible shock propagation channels and improve the prediction of market collapses. To this aim, our paper investigates the relationships between the explosive behaviors of cryptocurrencies through a unit root testing approach.
We develop a financial market model with heterogeneous agents who can be affected by confirmation bias. In particular we consider optimistic and pessimistic agents who adjust their beliefs giving more attention and consideration to evidences supporting their prior beliefs. These kinds of traders coexist with fundamentalists and chartists. We show that this psychological bias makes beliefs more and more distant as time passes, and permits to better explain some important stylized facts of financial markets.
Psychologists among other behavioural scientists refer to the tendency of favouring, interpreting, and searching for information that supports one's prior beliefs as confirmation bias . Given the relevance of the topic to the field, we develop a small-scale agent-based model in discrete-time to investigate how employment conditions affect attitudes towards climate policies under such a cognitive bias. Our narrative resembles the so-called discrete-choice approach. It is assumed that the respective probability functions respond to variations in the employment rate. Persistent endogenous fluctuations might emerge via a super-critical Neimark-Sacker bifurcation. Furthermore, depending on the strength of agents' response to the collective opinion, we might have coexistence of periodic attractors as a representation of path dependence. In terms of policy implications, we highlight that the adoption of a successful green-agenda depends on the ability of policy-makers to take advantage of favourable conditions in the labour market while appealing to different framing strategies.
The article investigates the effects played on options pricing by negative risk-free rates when the underlying is an equity with null dividends. In such anomalous conditions, in fact, the fair value at early exercise of the American Call would not match the value of the European Call with the same financial features. We originally motivate this assumption with theoretical arguments. We then move to an empirical investigation where we put at work some quasi-closed formulas for pricing an American option and the stochastic trinomial trees algorithm. We then draw the conclusion that from a numerical viewpoint, the bias between the fair value of the American Call and the value of the corresponding. European Call is mainly due to approximation errors, which can be mitigated when Trinomial Stochastic Trees are used.
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