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Degradation rates based on forecasting of performance ratio, R p , time series are computed and compared with actual degradation rates. A 3-year forecasting of monthly R p , measured from photovoltaic (PV) connected systems of various technologies is performed using the seasonal auto-regressive integrating moving average (ARIMA) time series model. The seasonal ARIMA model is estimated using monthly R p measured over a 5-year period and based on this model forecasting is implemented for the subsequent 3 years. The degradation rate at the end of the forecasting period, eighth year, is computed using a robust principal component analysis based methodology. The degradation rates obtained for various (PV) systems are then compared with the ones obtained using the actual 8-year data.

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