Many economic theories indicate that house price changes should have real effect on the economy and vice versa. This study investigates the existence of causality among house prices, economic growth, and inflation in Iran using the Toda and Yamamoto approach during the period 1990:1-2008:3. The results show that there is evidence of a significant multidirectional link between house prices, and the macroeconomic factors. The causality tests confirm that GDP and CPI Granger cause house prices, and feedback effects are observed for house prices and GDP. This paper finds no evidence of Granger causality of real house price changes to CPI.

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Unemployment is an important issue in developing economies. High unemployment means that labor resources are not being used efficiently. In this research, the dynamic effects of unemployment rate on per capita real GDP in Iran are investigated during the period 1971 to 2006 using an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Also in this model, the physical capital, the consumer price index and the ratio of government expenditure to GDP as control variables have been considered. The findings show that the unemployment rate has a significant and negative effect on per capita real GDP in long-run and short-run. The value of error correction coefficient is equal to -0.48 implying that around 95% of the per capita real GDP adjustment occurs after two years.

In this research, the dynamic effect of globalization on unemployment rate in Iran is investigated during the period 1971 to 2006 using Johansen-Juselius co-integration test. Thus, the trade intensity index (ratio of total exports and imports to GDP) as a measure of globalization have used. Also in this model, gross domestic product, the consumer price index as well as other variables affecting the unemployment rate have considered. Findings show that the globalization has a significant and negative effect on unemployment rate. The value of error correction coefficient is equal to -0.46 implying that around 95% of the unemployment rate adjustment occurs after two years.

Simultaneous making policy of interest rates, exchange rates and capital accounts can be extended to trilemma theory, contrary to its earlier theories, provided that the imbalances of the private sector, the government and the capital account adjusted through the policy variables such as the government expenditures, the interest rates on domestic deposits, the interest rates on domestic loans, effective exchange rates, foreign prices and foreign interest rates. On the other hand, the components of the extension of trilemma theory in the form of internal and external imbalances affect the exchange rate. In other words, if the real sector markets of the economy are not cleared through the aforementioned trilemma components, and policy variables, internal and external imbalances will be affected by opposite direction of net domestic assets (ΔNDA) and net foreign assets (ΔNFA) of the banking system. This is in accordance with the fundamental principles of the monetary approach balance of payments and exchange rate. Policy variables do not put pressure on the unofficial exchange rate as long as they have the same effect on the net changes in the domestic and foreign assets of the banking system. The purpose of this study is to consider the effect of internal and external imbalances on exchange rate through the simultaneous equations system, generating impulses in policy variables, and examining reactions in Iranian economy. In this paper, the monetary exchange rate determination model is analyzed and examined by using the extension of trilemma theory for macroeconomic data of Iran in the form of internal and external imbalances. The results of this study suggest that policy variables can stabilize the unofficial exchange rate (with other conditions being constant) through trading off internal and external imbalances. Thus, the economic policymaker can, while independently policing interest rates, capital accounts and government expenditures and other policy variables in this research, maintain exchange rate stability as a strategic variable and anchor the general level of prices.