Este artigo está publicado em acesso aberto (Open Access) sob a licença Creative Commons, que permite uso, distribuição e reprodução em qualquer meio, sem restrições, desde que o trabalho seja corretamente citado.

Este artigo está publicado em acesso aberto (Open Access) sob a licença Creative Commons, que permite uso, distribuição e reprodução em qualquer meio, sem restrições, desde que o trabalho seja corretamente citado. Doença de Chagas: serviço de referência e epidemiologiaChagas disease: a reference and epidemiology center Enfermedad de Chagas: servicio de referencia y epidemiologia

This reflective theoretical article, aims to discuss conceptual and methodological aspects about the applications of time series modeling, in particular, the Integrated Auto-regressive Moving Average model and its applicability in infant mortality. This modeling makes it possible to predict future values using past data, outlining and estimating possible scenarios of the health event, highlighting its magnitude. Due to the persistence of infant mortality as a public health problem, the applicability of this method is useful in the timely and systematic management of child health indicators, in addition to being a method with low operating cost, which in contexts of cost reduction in public healthcare services, becomes a potential management tool. However, there are still gaps in the use of statistical methods in the decision-making and policy-making process in public healthcare, such as the modeling in question. These are methodological (robust statistics), institutional (outdated information systems) and cultural obstacles (devaluation of the data produced, mainly at the local level).

Introduction: Tetanus has a worldwide distribution and high lethality. The goal of this study was to characterize the tetanus cases confirmed in Pernambuco and identify factors associated with death in these patients. Methods: Cross-sectional, with internal comparison groups. For data analysis we used the chi-square test and Pearson estimated the odds ratios and their respective confidence intervals at 95%. Multivariate analysis was applied to multiple logistic regression Results: The incidence of tetanus ranged between 0.65 and 2.79 cases per 100,000 inhabitants with higher involvement of adults, male and city population. Only 13.8% had received the vaccine and 23.4% received it as prophylaxis. The average mortality rate was 20.4%. In multivariate analysis, presented neck stiffness as a symptom (p = 0.029), which was associated with increased mortality. Conclusion: There is a need for greater investment in the prevention of the disease, both in immunization coverage and in the application of prophylaxis. Despite the hospitalization guarantee with proper care, there was an increase in tetanus mortality, suggesting that more specific studies should be conducted to investigate what may have influenced this change. Special attention should be offered to cases that presented neck stiffness as a symptom, because these groups have a higher chance of progressing to death.

Objectives: to analyze the risks of deaths in the first 24 hours of life and their preventable causes. Methods: cross-sectional study carried out in Pernambuco, Northeast of Brazil, between 2000-2019, with mortality and live birth data. The avoidability was analyzed through the Brazilian List of Avoidable Causes of Deaths due to Interventions of the Unified Health System. For the statistical analyses, Pearson’s chi-squared test and relative and attributable risks were used. Results: 13,601 deaths were registered, of which 10,497 (77.19%) were from preventable causes. Of the total, 5,513 (40.53%) were reducible through adequate care for women during pregnancy. The lower the gestational age, birth weight and education level, the higher the relative and attributable risk of death in the first 24 hours of life. Conclusions: most of the deaths were considered avoidable and with high relative and attributable risks. These early deaths suggest care failures and the need to reinforce prevention and treatment measures.