A hanseníase é hiperendêmica no Estado do Tocantins, Brasil. O objetivo do estudo foi analisar as tendências dos indicadores da hanseníase no Tocantins em 2001-2012. Análise de dados advindos do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN). Incluíram-se casos novos de residentes no Tocantins. Calcularam-se os indicadores da hanseníase e analisaram-se as tendências temporais por meio de regressão polinomial. Houve tendência significativa e decrescente para a detecção geral (R2 = 0,40; p < 0,05) e proporção de casos paucibacilares (R2 = 0,81). Foi estável a detecção em < 15 anos (R2 = 0,48; p > 0,05), detecção de casos com grau 2 de incapacidade física (R2 = 0,37; p > 0,05) e proporção de casos com grau 2 (R2 = 0,49; p > 0,05). Houve aumento significativo para a proporção de casos com grau 1 de incapacidade (R2 = 0,82; p < 0,05) e proporção de casos multibacilares (R2 = 0,81; p < 0,05). O Tocantins apresenta regiões com alta transmissão e diagnóstico tardio da hanseníase, apontando a expansão da doença de forma heterogênea na análise temporal.
OBJECTIVE To describe the spatial patterns of leprosy in the Brazilian state of Tocantins.METHODS This study was based on morbidity data obtained from the Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN – Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System), of the Ministry of Health. All new leprosy cases in individuals residing in the state of Tocantins, between 2001 and 2012, were included. In addition to the description of general disease indicators, a descriptive spatial analysis, empirical Bayesian analysis and spatial dependence analysis were performed by means of global and local Moran’s indexes.RESULTS A total of 14,542 new cases were recorded during the period under study. Based on the annual case detection rate, 77.0% of the municipalities were classified as hyperendemic (> 40 cases/100,000 inhabitants). Regarding the annual case detection rate in < 15 years-olds, 65.4% of the municipalities were hyperendemic (10.0 to 19.9 cases/100,000 inhabitants); 26.6% had a detection rate of grade 2 disability cases between 5.0 and 9.9 cases/100,000 inhabitants. There was a geographical overlap of clusters of municipalities with high detection rates in hyperendemic areas. Clusters with high disease risk (global Moran’s index: 0.51; p < 0.001), ongoing transmission (0.47; p < 0.001) and late diagnosis (0.44; p < 0.001) were identified mainly in the central-north and southwestern regions of Tocantins.CONCLUSIONS We identified high-risk clusters for transmission and late diagnosis of leprosy in the Brazilian state of Tocantins. Surveillance and control measures should be prioritized in these high-risk municipalities.
The objective of this study was to characterize epidemiological and temporal trends of leprosy in the city of Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil, from 2001 to 2012. A total of 9,658 new cases were reported. Their temporal trend was analyzed by the jointpoint regression model. The overall detection rate showed a declining trend, with annual percent change (APC) of -4.0 and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) -5.6 - -2.3. The detection rate in children under 15 years of age (APC = -1.4; 95%CI -5.4 - 2.8) and the detection rate of disability grade 2 (APC = -0.8; 95%CI -4.5 - 3.1) were stable. The proportion of female patients was descending (APC = -1,5; 95%CI -2.3 - -0.8). The proportion of multibacillary cases from 2005 to 2012 (APC = 1.4; 95%CI 0.6 - 2.3) and among them, lepromatous cases from 2004 to 2012 (APC = 6.0; 95%CI 3.4 - 8.6) were increasing. There was stability in the proportion of cases with grade 1 (APC = 1.4; 95%CI -0.9 - 3.7) and grade 2 disability (APC = 3.7; 95%CI -0.1 - 7.8). Despite the trend towards a reduction in detection, the disease transmission persists in the city. The data also suggest late diagnosis.
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