The delivery of healthcare that meets the requirements for quality, safety and cost-

Pressures on water resources due to changing climate, increasing demands, and enhanced recognition of environmental flow needs result in the need for hydrology information to support informed water allocation decisions. However, the absence of hydrometric measurements and limited access to hydrology information in many areas impairs water allocation decision-making. This paper describes a water balance-based modeling approach and an innovative web-based decision-support hydrology tool developed to address this need. Using high-resolution climate, vegetation, and watershed data, a simple gridded water balance model, adjusted to account for locational variability, was developed and calibrated against gauged watersheds, to model mean annual runoff. Mean monthly runoff was modeled empirically, using multivariate regression. The modeled annual runoff results are within 20% of the observed mean annual discharge for 78% of the calibration watersheds, with a mean absolute error of 16%. Modeled monthly runoff corresponds well to observed monthly runoff, with a median Nash-Sutcliffe statistic of 0.92 and a median Spearman rank correlation statistic of 0.98. Monthly and annual flow estimates produced from the model are incorporated into a map-and watershed-based decision-support system referred to as the Northeast Water Tool, to provide critical information to decision makers and others on natural water supply, existing allocations, and the needs of the environment.(KEY TERMS: surface water hydrology; computational methods; decision-support systems; Northeast Water Tool.)

Unconventional petroleum development involving large volume fluid injection into horizontal well bores, referred to as hydraulic fracturing (HF, or fracking), began in the Montney Trend of northeast British Columbia, Canada, in 2005, quickly initiating earthquakes. Earthquake frequency increased substantially in the Montney by 2008, in relation to the number of wells fracked and the volume of injected frack water. A spatiotemporal filter was used to associate earthquakes with HF wells. A total of 439 earthquakes (M 1.0 -4.6 (NRCAN catalogue) during 2013-2019 have close association with HF activity, of which 77% are associated with three operators. Fifteen percent of HF wells in the Montney are associated with these earthquakes, while 1.7% of HF wells are associated with M ≥ 3.0 earthquakes. There are strong linear relationships between the maximum earthquake magnitude each year and the annual volume of injected frack fluid. M ≥ 3.0 earthquakes are associated with large cumulative frack water volumes for antecedent time periods of 1 -3 years, often with fluid injection by multiple operators. Eighty-seven percent of the Montney M ≥ 3.0 earthquakes have associated HF triggering events, but a few are sufficiently distant to be ambiguous. Distances from the induced earthquake epicentres indicate a variety of causal mechanisms are involved. It is concluded that ~60% -70% of M ≥ 3.0 earthquakes are induced by hydraulic fracturing. HF-induced earthquakes can be considered in part related to the cumulative development density from multiple proximal operators and cumulative antecedent fluid injection over periods ranging from a few months to a few years. It is probable that induced earthquakes of M > 5 will occur in the future. There are significant public safety and infrastructure risks associated with future HF-induced earthquakes in the Peace River area. To carry out HF operations effectively and safely, potentially destructive earthquakes must be avoided or mitigated. The Traffic Light Protocol mitigation How to cite this paper: Chapman, A. R.

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