Local inversions are often observed in the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), but their origins and evolution are not yet fully understood. Parker Solar Probe has recently observed rapid, Alfvénic, HMF inversions in the inner heliosphere, known as ‘switchbacks’, which have been interpreted as the possible remnants of coronal jets. It has also been suggested that inverted HMF may be produced by near-Sun interchange reconnection; a key process in mechanisms proposed for slow solar wind release. These cases suggest that the source of inverted HMF is near the Sun, and it follows that these inversions would gradually decay and straighten as they propagate out through the heliosphere. Alternatively, HMF inversions could form during solar wind transit, through phenomena such velocity shears, draping over ejecta, or waves and turbulence. Such processes are expected to lead to a qualitatively radial evolution of inverted HMF structures. Using Helios measurements spanning 0.3–1 au, we examine the occurrence rate of inverted HMF, as well as other magnetic field morphologies, as a function of radial distance r, and find that it continually increases. This trend may be explained by inverted HMF observed between 0.3 and 1 au being primarily driven by one or more of the above in-transit processes, rather than created at the Sun. We make suggestions as to the relative importance of these different processes based on the evolution of the magnetic field properties associated with inverted HMF. We also explore alternative explanations outside of our suggested driving processes which may lead to the observed trend.

This is the second in a series of papers that investigate the semi-annual, annual and Universal Time (UT) variations in the magnetosphere. We present a varied collection of empirical results that can be used to constrain theories and modelling of these variations. An initial study of two years’ data on transpolar voltage shows that there is a semi-annual variation in magnetospheric flux circulation; however, it is not as large in amplitude as that in geomagnetic activity, consistent with the latter showing a non-linear (quadratic) variation with transpolar voltage. We find that during the persistent minimum of the UT variation in geomagnetic activity, between about 2 and 10 UT, there is also a persistent decrease in observed transpolar voltage, which may be, in part, caused by a decrease in reconnection voltage in the nightside cross-tail current sheet. We study the response of geomagnetic activity to estimated power input into the magnetosphere using interplanetary data from 1995 onwards, an interval for which the data are relatively free of data gaps. We find no consistent variation in the response delay with time-of-year F and, using the optimum lag, we show that the patterns of variation in F-year spectrograms are very similar for geomagnetic activity and power input into the magnetosphere, both for average values and for the occurrence of large events. The Russell–McPherron (R–M) mechanism is shown to be the central driver of this behaviour. However, the (R–M) effect on power input into the magnetosphere is small and there is a non-linear amplification of the semi-annual variation in the geomagnetic response, such that a very small asymmetry in power input into the magnetosphere Pα between the “favourable” and “unfavourable” polarities of the IMF BY component generates a greatly amplified geomagnetic response. The analysis strongly indicates that this amplification is associated with solar wind dynamic pressure and its role in squeezing the near-Earth tail and so modulating the storage and release of energy extracted from the solar wind. In this paper, we show that the equinoctial pattern is found in the residuals of fits of Pα to the am index and that the amplitude of these equinoctial patterns in the am fit residuals increases linearly with solar wind dynamic pressure. Similarly, the UT variation in am is also found in these fit residuals and also increases in amplitude with solar wind dynamic pressure.

The opening of closed magnetic loops via reconnection with open solar flux, so called "interchange reconnection", is invoked in a number of models of slow solar wind release. In the heliosphere, this is expected to result in local switchbacks or inversions in heliospheric magnetic flux (HMF). When observed at 1 AU, inverted HMF has previously been shown to exhibit high ion charge states, suggestive of hot coronal loops, and to map to the locations of coronal magnetic separatrices. However, simulations show that inverted HMF produced directly by reconnection in the low corona is unlikely to survive to 1 AU without the amplification by solar wind speed shear. By considering the surrounding solar wind, we show that inverted HMF is preferably associated with regions of solar wind shear at 1 AU. Compared with the surrounding solar wind, inverted HMF intervals have lower magnetic field intensity and show intermediate speed and density values between the faster, more tenuous wind ahead and the slower, denser wind behind. There is no coherent signature in iron charge states, but oxygen and carbon charge states within the inverted HMF are in agreement with the higher values in the slow wind behind. Conversely, the iron-tooxygen abundance ratio is in better agreement with the lower values in the solar wind ahead, while the alpha-to-proton abundance ratio shows no variation. One possible explanation for these observations is that the interchange reconnection (and subsequent solar wind shear) that is responsible for generation of inverted HMF involves very small, quiet-Sun loops of approximately photospheric composition, which are impulsively heated in the low corona, rather than large-scale active region loops with enhanced first-ionisation potential elements. Whether signatures of such small loops could be detected in situ at 1 AU still remains to be determined.

In situ spacecraft observations can provide much-needed constraints on theories of solar wind formation and release, particularly the highly variable slow solar wind which dominates near-Earth space. Previous studies have shown an association between local inversions in the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) and solar wind released from the vicinity of magnetically closed coronal structures. We here show that the properties of such inverted HMF observed in situ are consistent with the same coronal source regions as the slow solar wind. We propose that inverted HMF is produced by solar wind speed shear, which results from coronal loop opening via reconnection with an open flux tube and introduces a pattern of fast-slow-fast wind along a given HMF flux tube. This same loop-opening process is thought to be central to slow solar wind formation. The upcoming Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter missions provide a unique opportunity to directly observe these processes and thus determine the origin of the slow solar wind.

Space weather has long been known to approximately follow the solar cycle, with geomagnetic storms occurring more frequently at solar maximum than solar minimum. There is much debate, however, about whether the most hazardous events follow the same pattern. Extreme events – by definition – occur infrequently, and thus establishing their occurrence behaviour is difficult even with very long space-weather records. Here we use the 150-year $aa_{H}$ a a H record of global geomagnetic activity with a number of probabilistic models of geomagnetic-storm occurrence to test a range of hypotheses. We find that storms of all magnitudes occur more frequently during an active phase, centred on solar maximum, than during the quiet phase around solar minimum. We also show that the available observations are consistent with the most extreme events occurring more frequently during large solar cycles than small cycles. Finally, we report on the difference in extreme-event occurrence during odd- and even-numbered solar cycles, with events clustering earlier in even cycles and later in odd cycles. Despite the relatively few events available for study, we demonstrate that this is inconsistent with random occurrence. We interpret this finding in terms of the overlying coronal magnetic field and enhanced magnetic-field strengths in the heliosphere, which act to increase the geoeffectiveness of sheath regions ahead of extreme coronal mass ejections. Putting the three “rules” together allows the probability of extreme event occurrence for Solar Cycle 25 to be estimated, if the magnitude and length of the coming cycle can be predicted. This highlights both the feasibility and importance of solar-cycle prediction for planning and scheduling of activities and systems that are affected by extreme space weather.