Background:Projections of cancer incidence are important for planning health services and to provide a baseline for assessing the impact of public health interventions.Methods:Rates estimated from smooth function age–period–cohort modelling of cancer incidence data from Great Britain 1975 to 2007 are extrapolated to 2030 and applied to UK population projections. Prostate and breast cancer projections take into account the effect of screening.Results:Overall rates of cancer are projected to be stable over the next 20 years, but this masks individual changes. In both sexes, age-standardised rates of cancers of the stomach, larynx, bladder and leukaemia are projected to fall by ⩾1% per year, whereas cancers of the lip, mouth and pharynx (ICD-10 C00-C14) and melanoma are projected to increase by ⩾1% per year. The growing and aging populations will have a substantial impact: numbers of cancers in men and women are projected to increase by 55% (from 149 169 to 231 026) and 35% (from 148 716 to 200 929), respectively, between 2007 and 2030. The model used yields similar results to those of Nordpred, but is more flexible.Conclusion:Without new initiatives for smoking and obesity reduction, the number of cancers in the United Kingdom will increase substantially reflecting the growing and aging populations.

The design of targeted therapeutic strategies for cancer has been driven by the identification of tumor specific genetic changes. However, the large number of genetic alterations present in tumor cells means that it is difficult to discriminate between genes that are critical for maintenance of the disease state from those that are merely coincidental. Even when critical genes can be identified, directly targeting these is often challenging, meaning that alternative strategies such as exploiting synthetic lethality may be beneficial. To address these issues, we have carried out a functional genetic screen in over 30 commonly used models of breast cancer to identify genes that are critical for the growth of specific breast cancer subtypes. In particular, we describe potential new therapeutic targets for PTEN mutated cancers and for ER+ve breast cancers. We also show that large-scale functional profiling allows the classification of breast cancers into subgroups distinct from established subtypes.

Background:Typically, lifetime risk is calculated by the period method using current risks at different ages. Here, we estimate the probability of being diagnosed with cancer for individuals born in a given year, by estimating future risks as the cohort ages.Methods:We estimated the lifetime risk of cancer in Britain separately for men and women born in each year from 1930 to 1960. We projected rates of all cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and of all cancer deaths forwards using a flexible age-period-cohort model and backwards using age-specific extrapolation. The sensitivity of the estimated lifetime risk to the method of projection was explored.Results:The lifetime risk of cancer increased from 38.5% for men born in 1930 to 53.5% for men born in 1960. For women it increased from 36.7 to 47.5%. Results are robust to different models for projections of cancer rates.Conclusions:The lifetime risk of cancer for people born since 1960 is >50%. Over half of people who are currently adults under the age of 65 years will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lifetime.

While undergrading of prostate cancer used to be prevalent, some now tend to overgrade. Minimum diagnostic criteria for GP 4 and 5 in biopsies need to be better defined. Image libraries reviewed by experts may be useful for standardization.