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Abstract:The effects of temperature and rainfall changes on hydropower generation in Ghana from 1960-2011 were examined to understand country-wide trends of climate variability. Moreover, the discharge and the water level trends for the Akosombo reservoir from 1965-2014 were examined using the Mann-Kendall test statistic to assess localised changes. The annual temperature trend was positive while rainfall showed both negative and positive trends in different parts of the country. However, these trends were not statistically significant in the study regions in 1960 to 2011. Rainfall was not evenly distributed throughout the years, with the highest rainfall recorded between 1960 and 1970 and the lowest rainfalls between 2000 and 2011. The Mann-Kendall test shows an upward trend for the discharge of the Akosombo reservoir and a downward trend for the water level. However, the discharge irregularities of the reservoir do not necessarily affect the energy generated from the Akosombo plant, but rather the regular low flow of water into the reservoir affected power generation. This is the major concern for the operations of the Akosombo hydropower plant for energy generation in Ghana.

Potential implications of rainfall variability along with Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULC) on stream flow have been assessed in the Black Volta basin using the SWAT model. The spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over the Black Volta was assessed using the Mann-Kendall monotonic trend test and the Sen's slope for the period 1976-2011. The statistics of the trend test showed that 61.4% of the rain gauges presented an increased precipitation trend whereas the rest of the stations showed a decreased trend. However, the test performed at the 95% confidence interval level showed that the detected trends in the rainfall data were not statistically significant. Land use trends between the year 2000 and 2013 show that within thirteen years, land use classes like bare land, urban areas, water bodies, agricultural lands, deciduous forests and evergreen forests have increased respectively by 67.06%, 33.22%, 7.62%, 29.66%, 60.18%, and 38.38%. Only grass land has decreased by 44.54% within this period. Changes in seasonal stream flow due to LULC were assessed by defining dry and wet seasons. The results showed that from year 2000 to year 2013, the dry season discharge has increased by 6% whereas the discharge of wet season has increased by 1%. The changes in stream flows components such us surface run-off (SURF_Q), lateral flow (LAT_Q) and ground water contribution to stream flow (GW_Q) and also on evapotranspiration (ET) changes due to LULC was evaluated. The results showed that between the year 2000 and 2013, SURF_Q and LAT_Q have respectively increased by 27% and 19% while GW_Q has decreased by 6% while ET has increased by 4.59%. The resultant effects are that the water yield to stream flow has increased by 4%.

Abstract:The Bui hydropower plant plays a vital role in the socio-economic development of Ghana. This paper attempt to explore the combined effects of climate-land use land cover change on power production using the (WEAP) model: Water Evaluation and Planning system. The historical analysis of rainfall and stream flow variability showed that the annual coefficient of variation of rainfall and stream flow are, respectively, 8.6% and 60.85%. The stream flow varied greatly than the rainfall, due to land use land cover changes (LULC). In fact, the LULC analysis revealed important changes in vegetative areas and water bodies. The WEAP model evaluation showed that combined effects of LULC and climate change reduce water availability for all of demand sectors, including hydropower generation at the Bui hydropower plant. However, it was projected that Bui power production will increase by 40.7% and 24.93%, respectively, under wet and adaptation conditions, and decrease by 46% and 2.5%, respectively, under dry and current conditions. The wet condition is defined as an increase in rainfall by 14%, the dry condition as the decrease in rainfall by 15%; current account is business as usual, and the adaptation is as the efficient use of water for the period 2012-2040.