Fjord systems are transition zones between land and sea, resulting in complex and dynamic environments. They are of particular interest in the Arctic as they harbour ecosystems inhabited by a rich range of species and provide many societal benefits. The key drivers of change in European Arctic (i.e. Greenland, Svalbard, and Northern Norway) fjord socioecological systems are reviewed here, structured into five categories: cryosphere (sea-ice, glacier mass balance, glacial and riverine discharge), physics (seawater temperature, salinity, light), chemistry (carbonate system, nutrients), biology (primary production, biomass, species richness), and social (governance, tourism, fisheries). The data available for the past and present state of these drivers, as well as future model projections, are analysed in a companion paper. Changes to the two drivers at the base of most interactions within fjords, seawater temperature and glacier mass balance, will have the most significant and profound consequences on the future of European Arctic fjords. This is because even though governance may be effective at mitigating/adapting to local disruptions caused by the changing climate, there is possibly nothing that can be done to halt the melting of glaciers, the warming of fjord waters, and all of the downstream consequences that these two changes will have. This review provides the first transdisciplinary synthesis of the interactions between the drivers of change within Arctic fjord socio-ecological systems. Knowledge of what these drivers of change are, and how they interact with one another, should provide more expedient focus for future research on the needs of adapting to a changing Arctic.

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Abstract. The rapid environmental changes in aquatic systems as a result of anthropogenic forcings are creating a multitude of challenging conditions for organisms and communities. The need to better understand the interaction of environmental stressors now, and in the future, is fundamental to determining the response of ecosystems to these perturbations. This work describes an in situ mesocosm perturbation system that can manipulate aquatic media in a controlled setting on land. The employed system manipulated ambient water from Kongsfjorden, (Svalbard) by increasing temperature and freshening the seawater to investigate the response of mixed kelp communities to projected future Arctic conditions. This system manipulated temperature and salinity in real-time as an offset from incoming ambient seawater to conditions simulating future Arctic fjords. The system adjusted flow rates and mixing regimes of chilled, heated, ambient seawater, and freshwater, based on continuously measured conditions in a total of 12 mesocosms (1 ambient-control and 3 treatments, all in triplicates) for 54 days. System regulation was robust as median deviations from setpoint conditions were < 0.15 for both temperature (°C) and salinity across the 3 replicates per treatment. The implementation of this system has a wide range of versatility and can be deployed in a range of conditions to test single or multi-stressor conditions while maintaining natural variability.