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Avalanches are low probability events with potentially catastrophic consequences. Recreationalists, who voluntarily travel through avalanche terrain, represent the majority of avalanche fatalities (Tschirky, Brabec & Kern 2000; Birkeland, Greene & Logan 2017), and over 80 percent of avalanche accidents are triggered by the group that the victim was part of, or the victims themselves (Atkins 2000; McCammon 2000). Decision-making in avalanche terrain is especially challenging, given the asymmetric feedback that users receive in response to their decisions. Corrective feedback for poor decision-making is seldom provided, and when provided, can be fatal. This type of setting has been termed a "wicked learning environment" (Hogarth, Lejarraga, & Soyer 2015), and is one aspect that makes decision-making and risk perception so challenging in this setting. An analysis of mechanisms associated with high avalanche risk exposure may facilitate identification of groups that are susceptible for accidents, and holds potential to make educational interventions and communication of information more efficient to the highest risk groups. Previous research suggest that risk attitudes and perception are important determinants for risk exposure in other environments (e.g.

Abstract. Like many other mountainous countries, Norway has experienced a rapid increase in both recreational winter activities and fatalities in avalanche terrain during the past few decades: during the decade 2008–2017, 64 recreational avalanche fatalities were recorded in Norway. This is a 106 % increase from that of the previous decade. In 2013, Norway therefore launched the National Avalanche Warning Service (NAWS), which provides avalanche warnings to transport and preparedness authorities and to the public. Previous studies suggest that avalanche warnings are used extensively in trip and preparedness planning and have a relatively strong influence on the decisions people make in order to reduce risk. However, no evaluation concerning how efficiently the warnings are communicated and understood has been done to date in Norway. Avalanche warnings communicate complex natural phenomena with a variable complexity and level of uncertainty about both the future and the present. In order to manage avalanche risk successfully, it is fundamental that the warning message can be understood and translated into practice by a wide range of different user groups. Users with little or no avalanche competence may need simple information to decide when to stay away from avalanche terrain, while professional users may need advanced technical details in order to make their decisions. To evaluate how different modes of communication are understood, and how efficiently the informational content is communicated, we designed and implemented a web-based user survey. The modes of presentation were based on the Varsom.no 2017 version (Varsom.no being the national portal for natural hazard warnings in Norway). We first used a panel of 110 experts from NAWS to answer the survey, and used their answers to establish the indented message of the avalanche warning. We thereafter received responses from 264 users and compared their answers to those of the NAWS experts for the different modes of communication. We developed a method, the comprehension effectiveness score, to test the comprehension. Our empirical analyses suggest that most users find the warning service to be useful and well suited to their needs. However, the effectiveness of a warnings seems to be influenced by the competency of the user and the complexity of the scenarios. We discuss the findings and make recommendations on how to improve communication of avalanche warnings.