Low-carbon investments are necessary for driving the energy system transformation called for by both the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. Improving understanding of the scale and nature of these investments under diverging technology and policy futures is therefore of great importance to decision makers. Here, using six global modelling frameworks, we show that the pronounced reallocation of the investment portfolio required to transform the energy system will not be initiated by the current suite of countries' Nationally Determined Contributions. Charting a course toward 'well below 2 °C' instead sees low-carbon investments overtaking fossil investments globally by around 2025 or before and growing significantly thereafter. Pursuing the 1.5 °C target demands a marked up-scaling in low-carbon capital beyond that of a 2 °C-consistent future. Actions consistent with an energy transformation would increase the costs of achieving energy access and food security goals but reduce those for achieving air quality goals.

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