A total of 31,989 participants were enrolled from 126 research centers in the United States and Canada (15,991 were randomly assigned to receive IIV3-HD, and 15,998 to receive IIV3-SD). In the intention-to-treat analysis, 228 participants in the IIV3-HD group (1.4%) and 301 participants in the IIV3-SD group (1.9%) had laboratory-confirmed influenza caused by any viral type or subtype associated with a protocol-defined influenza-like illness (relative efficacy, 24.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 9.7 to 36.5). At least one serious adverse event during the safety surveillance period was reported by 1323 (8.3%) of the participants in the IIV3-HD group, as compared with 1442 (9.0%) of the participants in the IIV3-SD group (relative risk, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.85 to 0.99). After vaccination, HAI titers and seroprotection rates (the percentage of participants with HAI titers ≥ 1:40) were significantly higher in the IIV3-HD group. Conclusions: Among persons 65 years of age or older, IIV3-HD induced significantly higher antibody responses and provided better protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza illness than did IIV3-SD. (Funded by Sanofi Pasteur; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01427309.).

The highly sensitive gamma interferon (IFN-␥) enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot (ELISPOT) assay permits the investigation of the role of cell-mediated immunity (CMI) in the protection of young children against influenza. Preliminary studies of young children confirmed that the IFN-␥ ELISPOT assay was a more sensitive measure of influenza memory immune responses than serum antibody and that among seronegative children aged 6 to <36 months, an intranasal dose of 10 7 fluorescent focus units (FFU) of a live attenuated influenza virus vaccine (CAIV-T) elicited substantial CMI responses. A commercial inactivated influenza virus vaccine elicited CMI responses only in children with some previous exposure to related influenza viruses as determined by detectable antibody levels prevaccination. The role of CMI in actual protection against community-acquired, culture-confirmed clinical influenza by CAIV-T was investigated in a large randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled dose-ranging efficacy trial with 2,172 children aged 6 to <36 months in the Philippines and Thailand. The estimated protection curve indicated that the majority of infants and young children with >100 spot-forming cells/10 6 peripheral blood mononuclear cells were protected against clinical influenza, establishing a possible target level of CMI for future influenza vaccine development. The ELISPOT assay for IFN-␥ is a sensitive and reproducible measure of CMI and memory immune responses and contributes to establishing requirements for the future development of vaccines against influenza, especially those used for children.

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Compared to IIV-SD, IIV-HD reduced the risk of SAEs possibly related to influenza. The observed relative effectiveness against serious pneumonia is particularly noteworthy considering the burden of influenza and pneumonia in older adults.

Immunological assays measure characteristics of the immune system, such as antibody levels, specific to certain diseases. High assay values are often associated with protection from disease. A question of interest is how the relationship between assay values and subsequent development of disease should be quantitatively modelled. Existing approaches successfully model the relationship for high assay values, where the probability of developing disease is low. However at low assay values, the probability of developing disease is more closely associated with factors such as disease prevalence rates and an individual's chance of exposure to infection; these are less well captured by existing models. This paper presents a model that accommodates both assay values and factors independent of assay values, enabling protection from disease to be modelled over the whole range of assay values and proposing a method for predicting the efficacy of a vaccine from the assays of vaccinees and non-vaccinees.