Chromosomal instability (CIN)-persistent chromosome gain or loss through abnormal mitotic segregation-is a hallmark of cancer that drives aneuploidy. Intrinsic chromosome mis-segregation rate, a measure of CIN, can inform prognosis and is a promising biomarker for response to anti-microtubule agents. However, existing methodologies to measure this rate are labor intensive, indirect, and confounded by selection against aneuploid cells, which reduces observable diversity. We developed a framework to measure CIN, accounting for karyotype selection, using simulations with various levels of CIN and models of selection. To identify the model parameters that best fit karyotype data from single-cell sequencing, we used approximate Bayesian computation to infer mis-segregation rates and karyotype selection. Experimental validation confirmed the extensive chromosome mis-segregation rates caused by the chemotherapy paclitaxel (18.5±0.5/division). Extending this approach to clinical samples revealed that inferred rates fell within direct observations of cancer cell lines. This work provides the necessary framework to quantify CIN in human tumors and develop it as a predictive biomarker.

Chromosomal instability (CIN) — persistent chromosome gain or loss through abnormal karyokinesis — is a hallmark of cancer that drives aneuploidy. Intrinsic chromosome mis-segregation rates, a measure of CIN, can inform prognosis and are a likely biomarker for response to anti-microtubule agents. However, existing methodologies to measure this rate are labor intensive, indirect, and confounded by karyotype selection reducing observable diversity. We developed a framework to simulate and measure CIN, accounting for karyotype selection, and recapitulated karyotype-level clonality in simulated populations. We leveraged approximate Bayesian computation using phylogenetic topology and diversity to infer mis-segregation rates and karyotype selection from single-cell DNA sequencing data. Experimental validation of this approach revealed extensive chromosome mis-segregation rates caused by the chemotherapy paclitaxel (17.5±0.14/division). Extending this approach to clinical samples revealed the inferred rates fell within direct observations of cancer cell lines. This work provides the necessary framework to quantify CIN in human tumors and develop it as a predictive biomarker.

Chromosomal instability (CIN) is the persistent reshuffling of cancer karyotypes via chromosome mis-segregation during cell division. In cancer, CIN exists at varying levels that have differential effects on tumor progression. However, mis-segregation rates remain challenging to assess in human cancer despite an array of available measures. We evaluated measures of CIN by comparing quantitative methods using specific, inducible phenotypic CIN models of chromosome bridges, pseudobipolar spindles, multipolar spindles, and polar chromosomes. For each, we measured CIN fixed and timelapse fluorescence microscopy, chromosome spreads, 6-centromere FISH, bulk transcriptomics, and single cell DNA sequencing (scDNAseq). As expected, microscopy of tumor cells in live and fixed samples correlated well (R=0.77; p<0.01) and sensitively detect CIN. Cytogenetics approaches include chromosome spreads and 6-centromere FISH, which also correlate well (R=0.77; p<0.01) but had limited sensitivity for lower rates of CIN. Bulk genomic DNA signatures and bulk transcriptomic scores, CIN70 and HET70, did not detect CIN. By contrast, single-cell DNA sequencing (scDNAseq) detects CIN with high sensitivity, and correlates very well with imaging methods (R=0.83; p<0.01). In summary, single-cell methods such as imaging, cytogenetics, and scDNAseq can measure CIN, with the latter being the most comprehensive method accessible to clinical samples. To facilitate comparison of CIN rates between phenotypes and methods, we propose a standardized unit of CIN: Mis-segregations per Diploid Division (MDD). This systematic analysis of common CIN measures highlights the superiority of single-cell methods and provides guidance for measuring CIN in the clinical setting.