The article analyses the impact of foreign investors, who were the majority shareholders of companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, on dividend policy of these companies in the years 2004-2014. An evaluation of the direction and strength of the influence of the analysed group of investors, using 2 models, was conducted applying logistic regression. The first -dividend payout policy based on the binary logit model -showed that along with a growing share of a foreign investor in a given company the probability of dividend payment by the company increased significantly. The second -dividend level change model based on the multinominal logit method -showed, however, that with an increasing share of foreign investors the probability that a given company will reduce the paid dividend level was enhanced significantly. Additionally, it should be stated that these results, irrespective of the model used, were to a very large extent in line with conclusions of the pecking order theory. However, in the case of signaling, free cash flow and maturity theories, these results only to a small extent provided evidence supporting these theories. JEL classification: G32, G35

According to the signalling theory, investors draw conclusions concerning the future income potential of a given company based on the dividends it pays. According to one of the implications of this theory, changes made to a dividend should mirror the direction of future profits. This article presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between the current changes in the level of a dividend paid (t 0) and future company profitability (t + 1, t + 2). The companies examined were all traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and paid dividends in the years 2001-2013. The research shows that there is no statistically significant relationship between the dividend paid in a given year and the future results obtained by the companies examined.

Cel-Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie efektu klienteli dywidendowej, a w szczególności przybliżenie i omówienie jego teoretycznych podstaw oraz dokonanie przeglądu głównych obszarów badań empirycznych nad tym efektem. Metodologia badania-Przegląd literatury umożliwiający zidentyfikowanie i omówienie głównych prac teoretycznych i empirycznych dotyczących efektu klienteli dywidendowej. Wynik-Przeprowadzone studium literatury prowadzi do wniosku, że "zagadka dywidendy" wciąż pozostaje nierozwiązana, bowiem choć istnieje bardzo duża liczba badań analizujących różne aspekty klienteli, to jednak ich rezultaty przyniosły mieszane, czasami niejednoznaczne i nawet niekiedy sprzeczne wyniki. Oryginalność/wartość-Opisywane w polskiej literaturze teorie i hipotezy dywidendowe omawiane są najczęściej w sposób zbiorczy. Artykuł skupiając się tylko na jednym kontekście polityki dywidendowej, tj. efekcie klienteli, oferuje bardziej dogłębne i kompleksowe spojrzenie na prezentowane zagadnienie. Słowa kluczowe: dywidenda, efekt klienteli Wprowadzenie * Publikację sfinansowano ze środków przyznanych Wydziałowi Finansów Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie, w ramach dotacji na utrzymanie potencjału badawczego.

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to present the dividend signaling hypothesis, in particular, an empirical analysis of the relationship between the current changes in the level of a dividend paid (t0) and the future profitability of the companies. Design/Methodology/Approach: The dividend signaling hypothesis is empirically tested using the dynamic causality analysis based on the regression approach monitoring for expected earnings changes and past returns with a set of linear and non-linear controls. The conducted analyses comprised the domestic companies quoted on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, which paid dividends in 2001-2016. Findings: The empirical results confirm that in the audited period, dividend decisions bring some information about the current situation (t = 0) and future (t = 1, t = 2) of the analyzed companies. It is also worth noting that among the analyzed indicators, the gross profit ratio (PBT) referred either to the market value or the book value of equity was most often in the statistically significant analyzes. In general, our results confirm the validity of the signaling hypothesis in the case of continuation-growth and initiation of payments in the Polish capital market as in the developed market. Practical Implications: We can say that investors, based on "signals" coming out of dividends advertisements, may conclude the future-income potential of a given company. Originality/value: As mentioned, the gross profit ratio (PBT) referred either to the market value or the book value of equity was most often in the statistically significant analyses. Thus, it seems that, contrary to the adopted assumptions in the literature, gross profit (PBT) in dividend signaling is more important than net profit (E).

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