Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. face serious challenges from climate and landscape change, particularly in the southern portion of their native range. Conversely, climate warming appears to be allowing salmon to expand northwards into the Arctic. Between these geographic extremes, in the Gulf of Alaska region, salmon are at historically high abundances but face an uncertain future due to rapid environmental change. We examined changes in climate, hydrology, land cover, salmon populations, and fisheries over the past 30–70 years in this region. We focused on the Kenai River, which supports world‐famous fisheries but where Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha populations have declined, raising concerns about their future resilience. The region is warming and experiencing drier summers and wetter autumns. The landscape is also changing, with melting glaciers, wetland loss, wildfires, and human development. This environmental transformation will likely harm some salmon populations while benefiting others. Lowland salmon streams are especially vulnerable, but retreating glaciers may allow production gains in other streams. Some fishing communities harvest a diverse portfolio of fluctuating resources, whereas others have specialized over time, potentially limiting their resilience. Maintaining diverse habitats and salmon runs may allow ecosystems and fisheries to continue to thrive amidst these changes.

ABSTRACT. Spring runoff measurements of Arctic watersheds are challenging given the remote location and the often dangerous field conditions. This study combines remote sensing techniques and field measurements to evaluate the applicability of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to defining spring breakup of the braided lower Kuparuk River, North Slope, Alaska. A statistical analysis was carried out on a time series (2001 -10) of SAR images acquired from the European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-2) and the Canadian RADARSAT satellite, as well as on measured runoff. On the basis of field information, the SAR images were separated into pre-breakup, breakup, and post-breakup periods. Three variables were analyzed for their suitability to bracket the river breakup period: image brightness, variance in brightness over the river length, and a sum of rank order change analysis. Variance in brightness was found to be the most reliable indicator. A combined use of that variance and sum of rank order change appeared promising when enough images were available. The temporal resolution of imagery served as the major limitation in constraining the timing of the hydrologic event. Challenges associated with spring runoff monitoring and the sensitive nature of SAR likely resulted in an earlier detection of surficial changes by the remote sensing technique compared to the field runoff observations. Given a sufficient temporal resolution, SAR imagery has the potential to improve the spatiotemporal monitoring of Arctic watersheds for river breakup investigations.Key words: breakup, SAR, radar, river ice, Kuparuk River, Alaska, remote sensing RÉSUMÉ. La mesure de l'écoulement printanier des bassins hydrographiques de l'Arctique n'est pas facile à réaliser en raison de l'éloignement ainsi qu'en raison des conditions souvent dangereuses qui ont cours sur le terrain. Cette étude fait appel à des techniques de télédétection de même qu'aux mesures prises sur le terrain pour évaluer l'applicabilité du radar à synthèse d'ouverture SAR pour définir la débâcle printanière de la basse rivière Kuparuk anastomosée sur la North Slope de l'Alaska. L'analyse statistique d'une série temporelle (2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) d'images SAR acquises à partir du satellite européen de télédétection (ERS-2) et du satellite canadien RADARSAT ainsi que des écoulements mesurés a été effectuée dans le cadre de cette étude. D'après les renseignements recueillis sur le terrain, les images SAR ont été divisées en fonction de la période précédant la débâcle, de la période de la débâcle même et de la période suivant la débâcle. Trois variables ont été analysées afin de déterminer si elles permettaient d'isoler la période de la débâcle de la rivière, soit la luminance de l'image, la variance de la luminance en fonction de la longueur de la rivière et la somme de l'analyse des changements de classement suivant le rang. La variance de la luminance s'est avérée l'indicateur le plus fiable. L'utilisation conjointe de cette variance et de la s...