A timely determination of the risk of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a prerequisite for efficient service delivery and prevention. We provide a risk estimate tool allowing a calculation of individuals' PTSD likelihood from early predictors. Members of the International Consortium to Predict PTSD (ICPP) shared individual participants' item-level data from ten longitudinal studies of civilian trauma survivors admitted to acute care centers in six countries. Eligible participants (N=2,473) completed an initial clinical assessment within 60 days of trauma exposure, and at least one follow-up assessment 4-15 months later. The Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale for DSM-IV (CAPS) evaluated PTSD symptom severity and diagnostic status at each assessment. Participants' education, prior lifetime trauma exposure, marital status and socio-economic status were assessed and harmonized across studies. The study's main outcome was the likelihood of a follow-up PTSD given early predictors. The prevalence of follow-up PTSD was 11.8% (9.2% for male participants and 16.4% for females). A logistic model using early PTSD symptom severity (initial CAPS total score) as a predictor produced remarkably accurate estimates of . Adding respondents' female gender, lower education, and exposure to prior interpersonal trauma to the model yielded higher PTSD likelihood estimates, with similar model accuracy (predicted vs. raw probabilities: r=0.941). The current model could be adjusted for other traumatic circumstances and accommodate risk factors not captured by the ICPP (e.g., biological, social). In line with their use in general medicine, risk estimate models can inform clinical choices in psychiatry. It is hoped that quantifying individuals' PTSD risk will be a first step towards systematic prevention of the disorder.
Highlights Examined risk factors for later health anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 affective risk associated with multiple health anxiety dimensions. Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) associated with all health anxiety dimensions. Affective risk positively associated with health anxiety at mean and low IU levels. Results highlight risk factors for and targets for preventing severe health anxiety.
Objective: Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is frequently associated with depression and anxiety, but the nature of the relationship is unclear. By removing mood and anxiety diagnostic criteria, the 11th edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11) aims to delineate a distinct PTSD phenotype. We examined the effect of implementing ICD-11 criteria on rates of codiagnosed depression and anxiety in survivors with recent PTSD.Method: Participants were 1,061 survivors of traumatic injury admitted to acute care centers in Israel. ICD-10 and ICD-11 diagnostic rules were applied to the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale for DSM-IV. Co-occurring disorders were identified using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV (SCID). Depression severity was measured by the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II).Assessments were performed 0-60 ("wave 1") and 90-240 ("wave 2") days after trauma exposure. Results:Participants identified by ICD-11 PTSD criteria were equally or more likely than those identified by the ICD-10 alone to meet depression or anxiety disorder diagnostic criteria (for wave 1: depressive disorders, OR [odds ratio] = 1.98, 95% CI [confidence interval] = [1.36, 2.87]; anxiety disorders, OR = 1.04, 95% CI = [0.67, 1.64]; for wave 2: depressive disorders, OR = 1.70, 95% CI = [1.00, 2.91]; anxiety disorders, OR = 1.04, 95% CI = [0.54, 2.01]). ICD-11 PTSD was associated with higher BDI scores (M = 23.15 vs. 17.93, P < 0.001 for wave 1; M = 23.93 vs. 17.94, P < 0.001 for wave 2). PTSD symptom severity accounted for the higher levels of depression in ICD-11 PTSD. BARBANO ET AL. 491Conclusions: Despite excluding depression and anxiety symptom criteria, the ICD-11 identified equal or higher proportion of depression and anxiety disorders, suggesting that those are inherently associated with PTSD. K E Y W O R D S anxiety disorders, comorbidity, depressive disorders, nosology, posttraumatic stress disorder Willem F. van der Mei https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6396-3790 Terri A. deRoon-Cassini https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9485-0625 Ettie Grauer https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9375-6541 Sarah Ryan Lowe https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9544-4234 Yutaka J. Matsuoka
Background Research exploring the longitudinal course of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms has documented four modal trajectories (low, remitting, high, and delayed), with proportions varying across studies. Heterogeneity could be due to differences in trauma types and patient demographic characteristics. Methods This analysis pooled data from six longitudinal studies of adult survivors of civilian-related injuries admitted to general hospital emergency departments (EDs) in six countries (pooled N = 3083). Each study included at least three assessments of the clinician-administered PTSD scale in the first post-trauma year. Latent class growth analysis determined the proportion of participants exhibiting various PTSD symptom trajectories within and across the datasets. Multinomial logistic regression analyses examined demographic characteristics, type of event leading to the injury, and trauma history as predictors of trajectories differentiated by their initial severity and course. Results Five trajectories were found across the datasets: Low (64.5%), Remitting (16.9%), Moderate (6.7%), High (6.5%), and Delayed (5.5%). Female gender, non-white race, prior interpersonal trauma, and assaultive injuries were associated with increased risk for initial PTSD reactions. Female gender and assaultive injuries were associated with risk for membership in the Delayed (v. Low) trajectory, and lower education, prior interpersonal trauma, and assaultive injuries with risk for membership in the High (v. Remitting) trajectory. Conclusions The results suggest that over 30% of civilian-related injury survivors admitted to EDs experience moderate-to-high levels of PTSD symptoms within the first post-trauma year, with those reporting assaultive violence at increased risk of both immediate and longer-term symptoms.
This study indicates that significantly fewer individuals would be diagnosed with PTSD using the proposed ICD-11 criteria. Though ICD-11 criteria identify more severe cases, those meeting ICD-10 but not ICD-11 criteria remain in the moderate range of PTSD symptoms. Use of ICD-11 criteria will have critical implications for case identification in clinical practice, national reporting, and research.
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