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Interception by the forest canopy plays a critical role in the hydrologic cycle by removing a significant portion of incoming precipitation from the terrestrial component. While there are a number of existing physical models of forest interception, few studies have summarized or compared these models. The objective of this work is to use global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to compare five mechanistic interception models including the Rutter, Rutter Sparse, Gash, Sparse Gash, and Liu models. Using parameter probability distribution functions of values from the literature, our results show that on average storm duration [Dur], gross precipitation [P G ], canopy storage [S] and solar radiation [Rn] are the most important model parameters. On the other hand, empirical parameters used in calculating evaporation and drip (i.e. trunk evaporation as a proportion of evaporation from the saturated canopy [ϵ], the empirical drainage parameter [b], the drainage partitioning coefficient [p d ], and the rate of water dripping from the canopy when canopy storage has been reached) have relatively low levels of importance in interception modeling. Additionally, the free throughfall coefficient [p] and drainage partitioning coefficient [p d ] have relatively low levels of importance. As such, future modeling efforts should aim to decompose parameters that are the most influential in determining model outputs into easily measurable physical components. Because this study compares models, the choices regarding the parameter probability distribution functions are applied across models, which enables a more definitive ranking of model uncertainty.

openAccessArticle: FalsePage Range: 27-27doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.022Harvest Date: 2016-01-12 15:11:21issueName:cover date: 2012-03-10pubType

No abstract

Anthropogenic eutrophication threatens numerous aquatic ecosystems across the globe. Proactive management that prevents a system from becoming eutrophied is more effective and cheaper than restoring a eutrophic system, but detecting early warning signs and problematic nutrient sources in a relatively healthy system can be difficult. The goal of this study was to investigate if rates of change in chlorophyll a and nutrient concentrations at individual stations can be used to identify specific areas that need to be targeted for management. Biscayne Bay is a coastal embayment in southeast Florida with primarily adequate water quality that has experienced rapid human population growth over the last century. Water quality data collected at 48 stations throughout Biscayne Bay over a 20-year period (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014) were examined to identify any water quality trends associated with eutrophication. Chlorophyll a and phosphate concentrations have increased throughout Biscayne Bay, which is a primary indicator of eutrophication. Moreover, chlorophyll a concentrations throughout the northern area, where circulation is restricted, and in nearshore areas of central Biscayne Bay are increasing at a higher rate compared to the rest of the Bay. This suggests increases in chlorophyll a are due to local nutrient sources from the watershed. These areas are also where recent seagrass die-offs have occurred, suggesting an urgent need for management intervention. This is in contrast with the state of Florida listing of Biscayne Bay as a medium priority impaired body of water.