A flood pulse driven fish population model for the Okavango Delta, Botswana

Linhoss, Anna; Muñoz‐Carpena, Rafael; Allen, Micheal S.; Kiker, Gregory A.; Mosepele, Ketlhatlogile

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.022

Cited by 26 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 99 publications

(108 reference statements)

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“…This GSA/UA of the ORI reservoir model presents a novel demonstration of a previously described generic method for objectively reducing and refining uncertainty (Linhoss et al, 2012) which is especially relevant for data-scarce areas. It also provides important insights into the hydrology of the Okavango Delta, the sensitivity and uncertainty of the ORI model, and reservoir models in general.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Reducing uncertainty based on model fitness: Application to a reservoir model

Linhoss¹,

Muñoz‐Carpena²,

Kiker³

et al. 2015

WSA

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Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are important tools in the modelling process: they assign confidence to model results, can aid in focusing monitoring and preservation efforts, and can be used in model simplification. A weakness of global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methodologies is the often subjective definition of prior parameter probability distributions, especially in data-poor areas. We apply Monte Carlo filtering in conjunction with quantitative variancebased global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis techniques to address this weakness and define parameter probability distributions in the absence of measured data. This general methodology is applied to a reservoir model of the Okavango Delta, Botswana. In addition to providing a methodology for setting prior parameter distributions, results show that the use of Monte Carlo filtering reduces model uncertainty and produces simulations that better represent the calibrated ranges. Thus, Monte Carlo filtering increases the accuracy and precision of parametric model uncertainty. Results also show that the most important parameters in our model are the volume thresholds, the reservoir area/volume coefficient, floodplain porosity, and the island extinction coefficient. The reservoir representing the central part of the wetland, where flood waters separate into several independent distributaries, is a keystone area within the model. These results identify critical areas and parameters for monitoring and managing, refine and reduce input/output uncertainty, and present a transferable methodology for developing parameter probability distribution functions, especially when using empirical models in datascarce areas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…MCF has been shown to reduce the variance in model outputs and to be useful in calibration (Rose et al, 1991). Here, we use MCF to redefine prior PDFs based on the goodness of the model fit (Linhoss et al, 2012). Redefining prior PDF's based on the MCF results represents a novel method for reducing model uncertainty in a reservoir model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducing uncertainty based on model fitness: Application to a reservoir model

Linhoss¹,

Muñoz‐Carpena²,

Kiker³

et al. 2015

WSA

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“…Furthermore, Mosepele et al [81] also observed habitat partitioning in fish species assemblages of the delta, where upper delta habitats have relatively higher species diversity than lower delta habitats [79]. Several studies have shown that the flood pulse is a key driver in the delta's fish community [75,80,[84][85][86]. Similar fish species from different habitats in the Delta have different life history strategies [82,87], which is driven primarily by differences in environmental conditions [85].…”

Section: Biology and Ecology Of Fisheriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Classical Fisheries Theory and Inland (Floodplain) Fisheries Management; Is there Need for a Paradigm Shift? Lessons from the Okavango Delta, Botswana

Mosepele¹

2014

Fish Aquac J

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This paper reviews the fisheries management question of inland (floodplain) systems in the developing world and proposes a paradigm shift in approach. Inland fisheries management is largely based on classical fisheries formulations derived on temperate freshwater and marine single-stock fisheries. The basic models to manage inland fisheries are based on steady state equilibrium models. However, inland, flood-pulsed fisheries are dynamic and driven by external factors which are incongruent with the classical approach. Therefore, adopting this management approach in inland, flood-pulsed fisheries has created a management conundrum because of the obvious fundamental differences that exist between these two systems. Marine fisheries contribute to the macroeconomic growth of fishing countries, inland fisheries from developing countries are largely focused on recreational activities, while inland (floodplain) fisheries are key sources of food and nutrition security for marginalized riparian communities in the developing world. This review also uses lessons from the Okavango Delta fishery to illustrate the uniqueness of floodplain fisheries and the management questions therein. One key debate highlighted in this review is that inland fisheries are a livelihood of the last resort for poor (and sometimes malnourished) communities. Management should therefore mainstream this value into management interventions, especially since a sustainable utilization of this resource can assist developing countries to achieve some of the MDG's. The paper concludes with an argument of the need for a paradigm shift in inland fisheries management, where key factors such as enhanced data collection, co-management regimes based on "real" democratic principles constitute some of the germane attributes of fisheries management plans.

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“…Ephemeral wetland systems at the terminus of dryland river systems are subject to spectacular pulses of biological productivity (Roshier, Robertson, & Kingsford, 2002). The pulsing of high in-stream flows, or "freshes," is an important trigger for the breeding of fish (Humphries, King, & Koehn, 1999;Linhoss, Muñoz-Carpena, Allen, Kiker, & Mosepele, 2012). The flooding of river benches and floodplains mobilises carbon remineralised during the dry phase (Kobayashi et al, 2009;Woodward, Fellows, Mitrovic, & Sheldon, 2015), while overbank inundation of floodplains leads to the resprouting of senescent reedbeds and the germination of herbaceous plants from seed (Froend & Mccomb, 1994).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Productivity influences trophic structure in a temporally forced aquatic ecosystem

et al. 2017

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Previous studies on the relationship between ecosystem productivity, size and food‐chain length have been restricted to comparisons between locations. We examined the effect of temporal variability in productivity on trophic structure of a floodplain ecosystem, hypothesising that during the wet‐flood pulses, the increased resource availability might lead to higher food‐chain lengths. We examined multiple common sampling locations and species during a severe El Niño drought which followed a consecutive series of historically wet La Niña years, comparing trophic position and dietary sources. While carbon stable isotopes showed no significant difference between the two phases, nitrogen stable isotopes indicated that most species were feeding higher in the food chain in the wet phase. The results suggest that oscillations in climate phase‐driven changes have effects on food‐chain lengths through changes in productivity, without the introduction of new sources of carbon or changes to the composition of higher‐order predators.

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A flood pulse driven fish population model for the Okavango Delta, Botswana

Abstract: openAccessArticle: FalsePage Range: 27-27doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.022Harvest Date: 2016-01-12 15:11:21issueName:cover date: 2012-03-10pubType

Cited by 26 publications

References 99 publications

Reducing uncertainty based on model fitness: Application to a reservoir model

Reducing uncertainty based on model fitness: Application to a reservoir model

Classical Fisheries Theory and Inland (Floodplain) Fisheries Management; Is there Need for a Paradigm Shift? Lessons from the Okavango Delta, Botswana

Productivity influences trophic structure in a temporally forced aquatic ecosystem

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