The rise of water in rivers when it reaches high and abnormally high levels can lead to catastrophic consequences for the property complex and even pose threat to human life. Generally, in the European part of Russia, such levels are observed during high spring floods, which are characterized by a random frequency and depend on a combination of several factors. Climatic changes necessitate significant adjustments to the previously developed forecasting methods, whose accuracy and justification are reducing sharply. Therefore, the development of relevant forecasting methods for small and medium rivers is an important scientific objective. This paper considers 17 climatic factors potentially influencing the formation of the maximum levels of spring floods. The factors whose influence is most significant were determined by the correlation-regression analysis. The analysis was carried out according to the data of the Kuzmino-Gat gauging station, located at the upper reaches of the Tsna River (the Oka River basin), and the Tambov weather station for the period from 1970 to 2020. We have established that the probability of high floods increases to the greatest extent when the starting dates of snowmelt shift to later ones. The probability of high floods also increases with a rise in snow water reserves, autumn soil moisture, and a later transition of the average daily air temperature through 0ºС upwards. The results of this work are already being introduced into practice for verification and are used to make forecasts of the maximum flood level at the Kuzmino-Gat gauging station.

Introduction. The study is aimed at solving the problem of substantiation of ways to design continuous educational activities of high school students and students, leading them to the maximum disclosure of their creative potential. The proposed approach to solving this problem consists of using the potential of joint creative activity of high school students and students as a means of developing their common research interests. The purpose of this article is to substantiate the model of organization of this activity. Materials and methods. The study was conducted by methods of scientific literature analysis and modeling of informal educational environment as a system of psychological and pedagogical conditions of development of joint creative activity of high school and college students. The model was tested in the form of the Festival of Creative Ideas. The total number of participants was 150 people. The effectiveness of the created model was evaluated according to the following indicators: satisfaction of the participants with the obtained results; productivity of participation in the process of discussions; expression of research interests of high school and college students; expression of psychological barriers to subject-subjective interactions. Results. The principles underlying the organization of joint creative activity of senior pupils and students: dialogicality, productivity of subject-subject interactions and gamification are substantiated. The model of educational event as a structural unit of joint creative activity of senior pupils and students, including 4 blocks: diagnostic, communicative, content and reflexive, is created. The results of its experimental testing are characterized. It is shown that the majority of surveyed participants are most satisfied with the results of joint creative activity (84.1%), but insufficiently satisfied with their own contribution to this activity (36.4%). A wide range of research interests of high school students participating in joint creative activity with students has been revealed. The dominant interest is in the problems of choosing and mastering the future profession in the modern world (79.5%). The psychological barriers of the subjects of joint creative activity of senior pupils and students are reflected: fear of an unfamiliar situation (81,8%), fear of looking inadequate (75%), difficulty in establishing interpersonal contacts (68,2%). Conclusion. The general conclusion is made that the joint creative activity of high school students and students, carried out in an informal educational environment, has the result of the development of their research interests to the level comparable to the state of modern science.

Мансуров Валерий Андреевич доктор философских наук, профессор, главный научный сотрудник сектора социологии профессий и профессиональных групп Центра исследования социальной структуры и социального расслоения Федерального научно-исследовательского социологического центра РАН Семенова Анна Валерьевна кандидат философских наук, ведущий научный сотрудник сектора социологии профессий и профессиональных групп Центра исследования социальной структуры и социального расслоения Федерального научно-исследовательского социологического центра РАН Стрельцова Ирина Александровна младший научный сотрудник сектора социологии профессий и профессиональных групп Центра исследования социальной структуры и социального расслоения Федерального научно-исследовательского социологического центра РАН МОДЕРНИЗАЦИЯ ИНЖЕНЕРНОГО ОБРАЗОВАНИЯ В РОССИИ: ПРОБЛЕМЫ И РЕШЕНИЯ Аннотация: Статья посвящена проблемам содержания и качества подготовки инженерно-технических кадров в условиях современного российского общества. Целью исследования является анализ мнения научной общественности (профессорско-преподавательского состава технических вузов России) по поводу способов и направлений модернизации высшей инженерной школы России, проблем, с которыми она сталкивается, и путей их разрешения. Методом исследования выбран качественный мануальный контент-анализ публикаций по означенной выше тематике в специализированных научных изданиях. Это новая авторская методика, соединяющая в себе количественный подход, свойственный методологии традиционного контент-анализа, с углубленным качественным анализом исследуемого материала. Эмпирические объекты были отобраны с применением компьютерного поиска по ключевым словам. Это публикации специализированных изданий по вопросам высшего образования в России, научные монографии, материалы научных конференций и семинаров. В работе обсуждаются вопросы соотношения теории и практики в образовательном процессе, предложены некоторые пути модернизации высшего инженерно-технического образования в России.

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