Predicting the future direction of community evolution is a problem with high theoretical and practical significance. It allows to determine which characteristics describing communities have importance from the point of view of their future behaviour. Knowledge about the probable future career of the community aids in the decision concerning investing in contact with members of a given community and carrying out actions to achieve a key position in it. It also allows to determine effective ways of forming opinions or to protect group participants against such activities. In the paper, a new approach to group identification and prediction of future events is presented together with the comparison to existing method. Performed experiments prove a high quality of prediction results.Comparison to previous studies shows that using many measures to describe the group profile, and in consequence as a classifier input, can improve predictions.

Nowadays, sustained development of different social media can be observed worldwide. One of the relevant research domains intensively explored recently is analysis of social communities existing in social media as well as prediction of their future evolution taking into account collected historical evolution chains. These evolution chains proposed in the paper contain group states in the previous time frames and its historical transitions that were identified using one out of two methods: Stable Group Changes Identification (SGCI) and Group Evolution Discovery (GED). Based on the observed evolution chains of various length, structural network features are extracted, validated and selected as well as used to learn classification models. The experimental studies were performed on three real datasets with different profile: DBLP, Facebook and Polish blogosphere. The process of group prediction was analysed with respect to different classifiers as well as various descriptive feature sets extracted from evolution chains of different length. The results revealed that, in general, the longer evolution chains the better predictive abilities of the classification models. However, chains of length 3 to 7 enabled the GED-based method to almost reach its maximum possible prediction quality. For SGCI, this value was at the level of 3-5 last periods.

The paper addresses a problem of change identification in social group evolution. A new SGCI method for discovering of stable groups was proposed and compared with existing GED method. The experimental studies on a Polish blogosphere service revealed that both methods are able to identify similar evolution events even though both use different concepts. Some differences were demonstrated as wellComment: The 2012 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining, IEEE Computer Society, 2012, pp. 1233-123

No abstract

In the paper different roles of users in social media, taking into consideration their strength of influence and different degrees of cooperativeness, are introduced. Such identified roles are used for the analysis of characteristics of groups of strongly connected entities. The different classes of groups, considering the distribution of roles of users belonging to them, are presented and discussed.