Non-technical summary Until the past half-century, all agriculture and land management was framed by local institutions strong in social capital. But neoliberal forms of development came to undermine existing structures, thus reducing sustainability and equity. The past 20 years, though, have seen the deliberate establishment of more than 8 million new social groups across the world. This restructuring and growth of rural social capital within specific territories is leading to increased productivity of agricultural and land management systems, with particular benefits for those previously excluded. Further growth would occur with more national and regional policy support.

Summary The two concepts of public goods and ecosystem services are often used to describe the same welfare benefits potentially generated by agriculture and forestry, but they originate from different perspectives and each offer only partial analysis of these relationships. A more holistic approach – Social‐Ecological Systems (SES) – has been adapted and applied in new research to understand more fully how the relationships can best be characterised, and beneficial change promoted, through policy reforms and practical action. An important and novel part of the description of a SES, as developed under the PEGASUS project, is the assessment of its ‘valorisation cascade’. Through the mapping and consideration of assets, actors, interactions, drivers and the nature of the valorisation cascade in 34 diverse case studies, the project highlighted the importance of multi‐actor approaches and social processes to foster beneficial change. These include collective action, co‐learning and trust between actors, promoting experimentation and innovation, developing public and/or consumer awareness and identifying new valorisation options, including via commercial supply chains and enhanced community involvement.

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Summary More environmentally sensitive management of farmland and forestry is needed in Europe in response to increasing public demand and to meet the requirements of EU legislation for example on biodiversity. However, the provision of environmental and social public goods from farmland and forestry is not increasing at the required pace. A step change in approach is required: the opportunity could be provided by the current debate on adopting a more performance focussed model of the Common Agricultural Policy. Current policy mechanisms, including regulation and a range of incentives to individual farmers, meet part of the need but are not sufficient. Detailed analysis of 34 cases across the EU has convinced us that a new approach based on greater engagement with a wider range of key actors through collective actions could have greater ambition. It could aim for greater scale, longevity and coherence of action across a territory or along a supply chain. Building trust and establishing the right form of governance for highly diverse networks and types of cooperation is vital. Commercial actors in the supply chain could play a larger role. Links between flexible and extended forms of policy support, including for new initiatives, multi‐stakeholder partnerships and projects and for facilitators, will be needed.

This report demonstrates a probabilistic quantitative pathway analysis model that can be used in risk assessment for plant pest introduction into EU territory on a range of edible commodities (apples, oranges, stone fruits and wheat). Two types of model were developed: a general commodity model that simulates distribution of an imported infested/infected commodity to and within the EU from source countries by month; and a consignment model that simulates the movement and distribution of individual consignments from source countries to destinations in the EU. The general pathway model has two modules. Module 1 is a trade pathway model, with a Eurostat database of five years of monthly trade volumes for each specific commodity into the EU28 from all source countries and territories. Infestation levels based on interception records, commercial quality standards or other information determine volume of infested commodity entering and transhipped within the EU. Module 2 allocates commodity volumes to processing, retail use and waste streams and overlays the distribution onto EU NUTS2 regions based on population densities and processing unit locations. Transfer potential to domestic host crops is a function of distribution of imported infested product and area of domestic production in NUTS2 regions, pest dispersal potential, and phenology of susceptibility in domestic crops. The consignment model covers the several routes on supply chains for processing and retail use. The output of the general pathway model is a distribution of estimated volumes of infested produce by NUTS2 region across the EU28, by month or annually; this is then related to the accessible susceptible domestic crop. Risk is expressed as a potential volume of infested fruit in potential contact with an area of susceptible domestic host crop. The output of the consignment model is a volume of infested produce retained at each stage along the specific consignment trade chain.