This article uses relatively novel techniques (geographic information systems, spatial regression) to provide counterevidence to the reasoning voter hypothesis in previous studies of direct democracy. We apply these methods to voting data in relation to the spatial implications of Proposition 83, a 2006 California ballot initiative that set residency restrictions upon felons convicted of sexual offenses to 2,000 feet beyond the boundaries of parks and schools. We apply a theoretical framework that argues that geographic/spatial awareness is often subject to affective responses. Our hypothesis suggests that, in the absence of clear costs/benefits and without explicit cues concerning the complexity of the spatial environment, voters' abilities to place self‐interested votes become more susceptible to affect and symbols. Our models support this idea: partisan, ideological, and affective determinants dominate the model, while geographic self‐interest is unrelated to voting behavior on Proposition 83.
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Este artículo usa técnicas relativamente nuevas (SIG, regresión espacial) para proveer un contraargumento a la hipótesis del elector racional en estudios previos en democracia directa (e.g., Lupia 1994). Aplicamos estos métodos a información electoral en relación a las implicaciones espaciales de la Proposición 83, una iniciativa de California en 2006 que estableció restricciones de residencia para personas sentenciadas por delitos sexuales a mantener una distancia de 600 metros de los límites de parques y escuelas. Aplicamos un marco teórico donde argumentamos que la conciencia geográfica/espacial está sujeta a respuestas afectivas frecuentemente. Nuestra hipótesis sugiere que, en la ausencia de costos/beneficios explícitos y sin una indicación clara acerca de la complejidad espacial del entorno, la habilidad de los electores para votar en su propio interés se vuelve más susceptible a emociones y símbolos. Nuestros modelos apoyan esta idea: determinantes partidistas, ideológicos y afectivos dominan el modelo, mientras que interés individual geográfico no está relacionado al comportamiento electoral en la Proposición 83.
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