Political Geography, Direct Democracy, and the Reasoning Voter: Spatial Proximity, Symbolic Politics, and Voting on California's Proposition 83

Abstract

This article uses relatively novel techniques (geographic information systems, spatial regression) to provide counterevidence to the reasoning voter hypothesis in previous studies of direct democracy. We apply these methods to voting data in relation to the spatial implications of Proposition 83, a 2006 California ballot initiative that set residency restrictions upon felons convicted of sexual offenses to 2,000 feet beyond the boundaries of parks and schools. We apply a theoretical framework that argues that geographic/spatial awareness is often subject to affective responses. Our hypothesis suggests that, in the absence of clear costs/benefits and without explicit cues concerning the complexity of the spatial environment, voters' abilities to place self‐interested votes become more susceptible to affect and symbols. Our models support this idea: partisan, ideological, and affective determinants dominate the model, while geographic self‐interest is unrelated to voting behavior on Proposition 83. Related Articles:“Citizen Trust, Political Corruption, and Voting Behavior.” (2010) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2010.00267.x/abstract “Community Policing, Trust, and Muslim Communities in Relation to “New Terrorism.” (2010) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2010.00258.x/abstract “Moral Values and Vote Choice in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election.” (2007) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2007.00058.x/abstract Related Media: Video Clip: “Jessica's Law Dilemma: Homeless Sex Offenders.” (ABC7News 2010) http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?section=news/iteam&id=7245220 Este artículo usa técnicas relativamente nuevas (SIG, regresión espacial) para proveer un contraargumento a la hipótesis del elector racional en estudios previos en democracia directa (e.g., Lupia 1994). Aplicamos estos métodos a información electoral en relación a las implicaciones espaciales de la Proposición 83, una iniciativa de California en 2006 que estableció restricciones de residencia para personas sentenciadas por delitos sexuales a mantener una distancia de 600 metros de los límites de parques y escuelas. Aplicamos un marco teórico donde argumentamos que la conciencia geográfica/espacial está sujeta a respuestas afectivas frecuentemente. Nuestra hipótesis sugiere que, en la ausencia de costos/beneficios explícitos y sin una indicación clara acerca de la complejidad espacial del entorno, la habilidad de los electores para votar en su propio interés se vuelve más susceptible a emociones y símbolos. Nuestros modelos apoyan esta idea: determinantes partidistas, ideológicos y afectivos dominan el modelo, mientras que interés individual geográfico no está relacionado al comportamiento electoral en la Proposición 83.

The individual determinants of support for open space bond referendums

“…The importance of perception on voting behavior has been tested in topics outside of environmental preferences. For example, seeDyck and Hagley (2012).…”

Mary Jane Rocks the Vote: The Impact of Climate Context on Support for Cannabis Initiatives

“…Previous scholarship has consistently found that the majority of the electorate lacks encyclopedic information regarding the content of specific ballot initiatives (e.g., Bowler and Donovan ; Lupia ). Although the electorate is faced with an increasing number of initiatives, the extant literature suggests there are often cues on hand that serve to inform voters’ decisions on initiatives (Boehmke and Patty ; Bowler and Donovan ; Dyck and Hagley ; Lupia ; Gerber and Phillips ). For example, voters often rely on elite endorsements (Karp ; Lupia ), economic indicators (Alvarez and Butterfield ; Bowler and Donovan ), perceived potential economic benefits or costs (Gerber and Phillips ), and racial/ethnic context (Hero ; Tolbert and Hero ).…”

“…Recent research on ballot initiatives has extended the focus to consider if, and how, spatial attributes influence voting behavior, specifically ballot initiatives that are linked to geographical characteristics (Boehmke et al . ; Bowler and Donovan ; Dyck and Hagley ). Unsurprisingly, this research suggests that voters’ support for ballot initiatives is greater in geographic areas that seek to benefit from the policy, while support is lower in areas where benefit is lower and/or costs are higher.…”

Another collateral consequence? : examining homeless shelters policies on sex offenders across four states.

“…Moreover, SORN has made the reintegration process for sex offenders extremely difficult, because it limits their options in housing, employment, social support, and education (Barnes, Dukes, Tewksbury & De Troye, 2009;Chajewski & Mercado, 2009;Duwe, Donnay & Tewksbury, 2008;Dyck & Hagley, 2012;Farkas & Miller, 2007;Huebner, Kras, Rydberg, Bynum, Grommon & Pleggenkuhle, 2014;Levenson, 2008;Levenson, D'Amora & Hern, 2007;Logan, 2009;Mercado, Alvarez & Levenson, 2008;Mustaine & Tewksbury, 2011;Tewksbury, 2005;Zandbergen & Hart, 2006).…”

“…Residency restrictions laws remain popular among the public and lawmakers as necessary tools to protect children from sex offenders, despite empirical research suggesting that residency restriction laws create a false sense of security (Dyck & Hagley, 2012;Kernsmith et al, 2009, Levenson, Brannon, Fortney & Baker, 2007.…”