Peri-operative SARS-CoV-2 infection increases postoperative mortality. The aim of this study was to determine the optimal duration of planned delay before surgery in patients who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection. This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study included patients undergoing elective or emergency surgery during October 2020. Surgical patients with pre-operative SARS-CoV-2 infection were compared with those without previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality. Logistic regression models were used to calculate adjusted 30-day mortality rates stratified by time from diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection to surgery. Among 140,231 patients (116 countries), 3127 patients (2.2%) had a pre-operative SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis. Adjusted 30-day mortality in patients without SARS-CoV-2 infection was 1.5% (95%CI 1.4-1.5). In patients with a pre-operative SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis, mortality was increased in patients having surgery within 0-2 weeks, 3-4 weeks and 5-6 weeks of the diagnosis (odds ratio (95%CI) 4.1 (3.3-4.8), 3.9 (2.6-5.1) and 3.6 (2.0-5.2), respectively). Surgery performed ≥ 7 weeks after SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis was associated with a similar mortality risk to baseline (odds ratio (95%CI) 1.5 (0.9-2.1)). After a ≥ 7 week delay in undertaking surgery following SARS-CoV-2 infection, patients with ongoing symptoms had a higher mortality than patients whose symptoms had resolved or who had been asymptomatic (6.0% (95%CI 3.2-8.7) vs. 2.4% (95%CI 1.4-3.4) vs. 1.3% (95%CI 0.6-2.0), respectively). Where possible, surgery should be delayed for at least 7 weeks following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Patients with ongoing symptoms ≥ 7 weeks from diagnosis may benefit from further delay.
A change in the cutoff age in the current AJCC/UICC staging system from 45 years to 55 years would lead to a downstaging of 12% of patients, and would improve the statistical validity of the model. Such a change would be clinically relevant for thousands of patients worldwide by preventing overstaging of patients with low-risk disease while providing a more realistic estimate of prognosis for those who remain high risk.
Volume-outcome associations exist for head and neck oncologic procedures, although this has not been fully investigated for salivary gland malignancies. Future quality of care studies in head and neck oncology should focus on processes of care, which may explain this relationship.
Background: In most staging systems, 45 years of age is used to differentiate low risk thyroid cancer from high risk thyroid cancer. However, recent studies have questioned both the precise 45 year age point and the concept of using a binary cut off as accurate predictors of disease specific mortality. Methods: A cohort of 3664 thyroid cancer patients that received surgery and adjuvant treatment at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) from the years 1985 to 2010 were analyzed to determine the significance of age at diagnosis as a categorical variable at a variety of age cutoffs (5 year intervals between 30 and 70 years of age). The unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratio for the association between disease-specific survival and age was determined using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for other predictive variables sex, histology, and pathological T, N, and M status. Furthermore, predictive nomograms of disease-specific mortality were created and validated on an external dataset of 4551 patients to evaluate the impact of age at diagnosis as both a categorical and continuous variable. Results: In the MSKCC cohort, with a median follow-up time of 54 months (range 1-332), there were 59 deaths from thyroid cancer with a 10 year disease-specific survival of 96%. Adjusted hazard ratios for all age cutoffs from age 30 to age 70 years were significant. There was no specific cutoff age which risk stratifies patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). Categorizing age into five strata (<40, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69 and >70 years) showed a 37-fold increase in hazard ratio from age <40 years to age >70 years. A predictive nomogram using age as a continuous variable with other predictive variables had a high concordance index of 96%. Validation on the external cohort had a concordance index of 73%. Conclusions: Mortality from DTC increases progressively with advancing age. There is no specific cutoff age which risk stratifies patients with DTC. A predictive nomogram using age as a continuous variable may be a more appropriate tool for stratifying patients with DTC and for predicting outcome.
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