The discussion on Restrictions on Agricultural Exports (ER) in the World Trade Organization (WTO), which is a mechanism to temporarily stop the export of agricultural products aimed at preventing food shortages in exporting countries has been intensively negotiated. However, as a net importer of agricultural products and a member of the G33 countries, Indonesia must overcome the ER policy because it might have the potential to increase prices and threaten food security in the Indonesian domestic market. This study uses descriptive qualitative statistical analysis to determine the Import Dependency Ratio (IDR) and Independence Ratio (SSR) for five of Indonesia's main import agricultural products such as rice, corn, soybeans, wheat, and horticulture. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis using GTAP ver.9 is also used to analyze the impact of restrictions on exports of agricultural products for the five products analyzed on macroeconomic and sectoral indicators. Based on IDR and SSR it can be concluded that almost all G33 countries are highly dependent on wheat imports, as many as 36 countries are dependent on imported wheat with IDR values ​​varying between 70% - 215%. The analysis shows that export restrictions will harm Indonesia's macroeconomic. However, by sector, Indonesian farmers and producers can take advantage of the impact of the export restriction policy as an opportunity to increase their production in the context of meeting domestic demand as a result of declining demand for imported food products in the country.

Education is a very essential factor in human life, because if someone get the certain knowledge then they will be able to make a better decision, self empowerment and aware of rules and regulations in the world. Two of the important regulations related to international trade are coming from The World Trade Organization (WTO) and Trade Facilitation Agreement  (TFA).  Indonesia  has  ratified  the  Trade  Facilitation  Agreement  (TFA)  on  5 December 2017. The new agreement related to WTO and TFA needed to be learnt and teach with a good Education Model. The most important role of skill policies and education in globalization era is its role in facilitating the international flow of ideas. This research can fill the  gap  to  make  an  Educational  Model  of  TFA  based  on  Non-Juridical  and  Juridical Education. Both factors become very important things because the stakeholders can use this model to more quickly and easily understand the substance of TFA, so that Indonesia can fully implement the TFA commitments in the digital database WTO in the year 2022.

The discussion of agricultural Export Restriction (ER) at the World Trade Organization (WTO), which is a mechanism to temporarily stop the export of agricultural product that aims to prevent food shortages in exporting countries has been intensively negotiated. However, as a net importer of agricultural products and the member of G33 countries, Indonesia should address the ER policy because it may have potential to increase prices and threaten food security in domestic market and G33 member countries. This study uses a descriptive qualitative statistical analysis to determine Import Dependency Ratio (IDR) and Self-Sufficiency Ratio (SSR) for five main imported agricultural products by G33 countries such as rice, corn, soybean, wheat, and horticulture. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis using GTAP ver.9 is also used to analyze the potential impact of agricultural product export restrictions for five analyzed products on macroeconomic and sectoral indicators. Based on IDR and SSR it can be concluded that almost all G33 countries heavily rely on wheat imports, as many as 36 countries depend on imported wheat with IDR values varying between 70% -215%. On the other hand, several G-33 countries have a fairly good level of fulfillment of consumption from domestic production (SSR) or more than 80%. Moreover, based on the GTAP calculation on the Indonesia case, export restrictions will have a negative macroeconomic impact on Indonesia. However, in sectoral perspective Indonesian farmers/producers can take advantage of the impact of the export restriction policy as an opportunity to increase their production.

The rice is a staple food for the people and significantly contributes to economic development in Indonesia. Occasionally a market intervention should be implemented by the Government of Indonesia during the low harvest season to control and to manage the price of rice and the inflation, so low-income society could meet their basic needs. This study examines how communication aspect is really important as a part of market intervention mechanism to control the price and the stock of rice in Indonesia. Autoregressive and Moving Average, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity / Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, and the Structural Time-Series Model are applied  with a dummy variable on daily and monthly data of the stock and the price of rice from January 1, 2015 until June 27, 2016. It can be inferred from the data that the form of mass communication by the government to relevant stakeholders (channel distribution and consumers) can run well, especially in order to maintain the supply and the price stabilization of rice. Nevertheless, the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model with dummy variables, inter alia mass communication, and also the number of market operations and rice policy, are not so influential on the price of rice, but more influence on the stock of rice. Then, the Structural Time-Series Model shows that the fluctuation of price and stock is affected by seasonal and cycle components especially more fluctuated in the month of January-March. Therefore, the relevant authorities are expected to maximize the rice policy in order to maintain the price stability in the short term, medium term and long term. AbstrakBeras merupakan makanan pokok bagi masyarakat dan secara signifikan berkontribusi terhadap pembangunan ekonomi di Indonesia. Terkadang intervensi pasar harus dilaksanakan oleh pemerintah diluar musim panen untuk mengendalikan dan mengelola harga beras dan inflasi, sehingga masyarakat berpenghasilan rendah dapat memenuhi kebutuhan mereka. Penelitian ini mengkaji bagaimana aspek komunikasi sangat penting sebagai mekanisme intervensi pasar untuk mengendalikan harga dan stok beras di Indonesia. Autoregressive and Moving Average and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity / Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity serta the Structural Time-Series Model  digunakan dengan variabel dummy pada data stok dan harga beras, baik harian maupun bulanan, antara 1 Januari 2015 hingga 27 Juni 2016. Hasil analisis menyimpulkan bahwa komunikasi massa oleh pemerintah kepada pihak-pihak yang berkepentingan (pelaku usaha dan konsumen) dapat berjalan dengan baik terutama untuk menjaga pasokan dan stabilitas harga beras. Namun demikian, model ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) dengan variabel dummy yaitu komunikasi massa, serta jumlah operasi pasar dan kebijakan beras kurang berpengaruh terhadap harga beras namun lebih berpengaruh terhadap stok beras. Kemudian, the Structural Time-Series Model menunjukkan bahwa naik turunnya harga dan stok beras berasal dari komponen musiman dan siklus terutama lebih berfluktuasi pada bulan Januari-Maret. Oleh karena itu, otoritas terkait diharapkan dapat memaksimalkan kebijakan beras untuk menjaga stabilitas harga dan stok beras dalam jangka pendek, menengah, dan panjang.

Rubber and palm oil are the two main export commodities that contribute to economic development in Indonesia. Specific trade policy has to be implemented when export commodity prices fluctuating or increasing or decreasing rapidly in the short period of time. The research purpose is to write a trade policy evaluation on rubber and palm oil using ARMA-ARCH/GARCH and structural timeseries model. This study shows that price movement aspect is very important to evaluate the trade policy. The results of the analysis using Autoregressive and Moving Average and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity/Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARMA-ARCH/GARCH) indicate that past price factors can be used to predict future prices. The Structural Time-Series Model (STSM) shows that the price of rubber and palm oil in 2020 and 2021 is expected to be relatively stable. The relevant trade authorities need to maximize the public services related to the price predictions and upcoming policy in order to maintain export stability in the short and long terms so that it can be utilized to the greatest extent possible for development of Indonesia.