Unsustainable harvest is one of the most important threats to biodiversity, and birds are highly impacted, but avian markets remain poorly understood. When species value and corruption/criminality are high, the “parallel trafficking” hypothesis predicts that illegal animal items will move through networks used for other illicit products. Alternatively, when particular demands, logistical skills or access limits trade, “specialized trafficking” hypotheses predict that few, expert actors will control markets. Here, we use social network analysis of trade in an Endangered songbird, the Red Siskin Spinus cucullatus, originating in Venezuela, to examine the generality of the parallel trafficking hypothesis in a setting where corruption/criminality and species value are high. In spite of these circumstances, of 2575 Red Siskin (RS) records compiled from 2010 to 2017, we found just six reports consistent with parallel trafficking. Instead, we discovered an independent network of 15 actor types, and a trade structure consistent with specialized trafficking. Just two intermediary types (national vendors to intermediaries and to consumers) and one consumer type (national breeders) had the highest exposure to the flow of birds, and the most trade connectivity. Use of wild‐caught over captive‐bred birds was high (67% of records), as was use of natural‐phenotype birds over hybrid or mutant‐phenotype birds (65% of records). Geographically, Spain and Venezuela had the highest exposure to the flow of birds, but Brazil and Colombia had the most direct connections with other countries. The unexpected lack of evidence for parallel trafficking suggests that combined flows of illicit products are not inevitable, even in adverse settings. In a context where law enforcement may not be feasible, our results suggest that it may be possible to reduce unsustainable harvest using breeder connectivity in informational campaigns to stimulate peer‐to‐peer interactions and accelerate behavior change.

Illegal wildlife trade is one of the major threats to Neotropical psittacids, with nearly 28% of species targeted for the illegal pet trade. We analysed the most comprehensive data set on illegal wildlife trade currently available for Venezuela, from various sources, to provide a quantitative assessment of the magnitude, scope and detectability of the trade in psittacids at the national level. We calculated a specific offer index (SO) based on the frequency of which each species was offered for sale. Forty-seven species of psittacids were traded in Venezuela during 1981–2015, of which 17 were non-native. At least 641,675 individuals were traded, with an overall extraction rate of 18,334 individuals per year (35 years of accumulated reports). Amazona ochrocephala was the most frequently detected species (SO = 3.603), with the highest extraction rate (10,544 individuals per year), followed by Eupsittula pertinax (SO = 1.357) and Amazona amazonica (SO = 1.073). Amazona barbadensis, Ara ararauna and Ara chloropterus were the fourth most frequently detected species (SO = 0.564–0.615). Eleven species were involved principally in domestic trade (> 60% of records). Our approach could be the first step in developing a national monitoring programme to inform national policy on the trade in psittacids. Patterns and numbers provided may be used to update the official list of threatened species, and could also be used in planning conservation actions.

Species distribution models (SDM) can be valuable for identifying key habitats for conservation management of threatened taxa, but anthropogenic habitat change can undermine SDM accuracy. We used data for the Red Siskin (Spinus cucullatus), a critically endangered bird and ground truthing to examine anthropogenic habitat change as a source of SDM inaccuracy. We aimed to estimate: (1) the Red Siskin's historic distribution in Venezuela; (2) the portion of this historic distribution lost to vegetation degradation; and (3) the location of key habitats or areas with both, a high probability of historic occurrence and a low probability of vegetation degradation. We ground‐truthed 191 locations and used expert opinion as well as landscape characteristics to classify species' habitat suitability as excellent, good, acceptable, or poor. We fit a Random Forest model (RF) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) time series to evaluate the accuracy and precision of the expert categorization of habitat suitability. We estimated the probability of historic occurrence by fitting a MaxLike model using 88 presence records (1960–2013) and data on forest cover and aridity index. Of the entire study area, 23% (20,696 km2) had a historic probability of Red Siskin occurrence over 0.743. Furthermore, 85% of ground‐truthed locations had substantial reductions in mean EVI, resulting in key habitats totaling just 976 km2, in small blocks in the western and central regions. Decline in Area of Occupancy over 15 years was between 40% and 95%, corresponding to an extinction risk category between Vulnerable and Critically Endangered. Relating key habitats with other landscape features revealed significant risks and opportunities for proposed conservation interventions, including the fact that ongoing vegetation degradation could limit the establishment of reintroduced populations in eastern areas, while the conservation of remaining key habitats on private lands could be improved with biodiversity‐friendly agri‐ and silviculture programs.

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The challenges faced by small organizations confronting illegal wildlife trade (IWT) networks can be large and frightening. In a context of high corruption, political instability and social upheaval, obtaining information about actor identities, connections and trade flows may come with risks to personal security. Yet it is precisely in these contexts that illegal wildlife trade may flourish, piggybacking on trade in other contraband items. In our recent work, we examined the hypothesis that such 'parallel' trafficking would dominate trade in a threatened, Neotropical finch, the Red Siskin (RS, Spinus cucullatus) in Venezuela (S anchez-Mercado et al., 2019). Venezuela's economic situation has experienced historic declines since 2014: by 2017,~87% of the population lived in poverty, and from 2013 -2018, GDP fell over 45% (España & Ponce, 2017). We expected the lure of 'hard' foreign currency, combined with widespread lawlessness, to drive IWT in this bird, in parallel with other illicit items. In spite of these conditions, although we did find an active and complex RS trade network, we found little evidence for parallel trade, and instead found a network reliant on specialized logistical capacity for transport and enforcement evasion, as well as intermediaries with specialized skills. While this finding of an active network was not good news, the network structure we found presents unexpected opportunities for small organizations up against this trade challenge, particularly in a South American context.We are grateful to Farine (2020), Tsang (2020) and Kahler (2020) for their generous and valuable insights about our study, and their careful note of caveats and recommendations for future work. For example, we agree that finding no evidence for parallel trade does not mean such trade does not exist. As Kahler (2020) and Tsang (2020) note, detection of parallel trade is not simple, though our failure to find evidence of it is likely due less to under reporting by interview subjects (who freely shared information about contacts), than to insufficient sampling effort, particularly among potential international colluders and intermediaries. However, parallel trafficking is just one way that an IWT network may operate, with its organized pyramidal structure, and fluxes dominated by monopolistic or power figures, as in the case of rhino, ivory, or tiger products. The structure of the Neotropical parrot trade network presents another such alternative (Pires, Schneider, & Herrera, 2016). Similar to their findings, we found little formal organization between or among actors. This modus operandi, although not exclusive to South American countries, may be driven by their general lack of environmental law enforcement: ordinary individuals may participate in IWT, with low risk and without need for organized crime groups. Thus, our lack of detection of parallel trade may reflect reality, and not just sampling bias.The potential reality of a significant 'specialized' rather than parallel trade in RS is not only less frightening, i...