The main purpose of this paper is to provide a methodology of decision which will help the Oil Companies Risk Managers to deal with some specific material risks, utilizing insurance coverage, in projects with private partners assuming the financial support of a new offshore facility construction and operation instead of Public sources. To that end, we will discuss a possible Risk Management process, which encloses the Loss matrix for risk assessment, in order to evaluate the worstloss scenario that can impact the cash flow of the business, which is structured by Project Finance modeling. 1. Introduction Nowadays, it is remarkable how the Government Authorities in developing countries have been looking for private resources in order to supply their needs of capital to implement the new infrastructure projects. The actual economic environment hides other typical measures used in the past, mainly the appearance of taxes to increase Public budget. Otherwise, as Aschauer (1) have mentioned in opposition to Keynes' classical Theory, in the present days there are many doubts that an increase on Public expense would result in an economic growth. Besides these facts, it has been a difficult task the attainment of funds from oversea institutions, either from Multilateral Agencies such as from International Banks or Syndicates. The aftermath of those harm conditions has been transforming the capital funding structure around the world. The traditional way of money borrowing (Corporate Finance) has been changed - from infrastructure projects to Project Finance basis. At the point of view of Corporate Finance, the lenders of a new project have been focused basically on recover their capital without bearing or at least considering risks involved others than the sponsors' capacity of debt service repayment. They analyze only the economic sponsors' health. Thus, they will spread an interest tax reflecting their financial sensibility of this kind of risk. On the other hand, with a different perspective, the Project Finance Modeltries to split the risks into all players of a new project. Although it is a more complex risk analysis form, it would generate a stronger financial structure in order to preserve all players rights enclosed.
In a scenario of uncertainty and imprecision, before taking the replacement analysis, a manager needs to consider the uncertain reality of a problem. In this scenario, the fuzzy logic makes an excellent option. Therefore, it is necessary to make a decision based on the fuzzy model. This study is based on the comparison of two methodologies used in the problem of asset replacement. The study, thus, was based on a comparison between two extruders for polypropylene yarn bibliopegy, comparing mainly the costs involved in maintaining the equipment.
In order to cover the financial capability of Public sector in the emergingcountries, new ways of financing of the Public expenditure in infrastructureprojects need to be studied. This is the particular case of the PetroleumIndustry in Brazil. Perhaps, without private capital, both national or foreign, the BrazilianIndustry will never be able to support itself his own consumption demands. Therefore, the use of Project Finance (PF) modeling to meet an alternative wayto Corporate Finance, will be extensively used to substitute the governmentalrole of Public Investor, who, besides, doesn't have more capability to investintensively in Petroleum Projects. Some advantages brought throughout Project Finance is separation of theproject risk, by the creation of the SPC (Special Purpose Company), whoseaccount life has independence to the players of the project. Otherwise, thiskind of financial modeling is used in projects that require intensive amountsof capital, like oil and gas projects. So, despite the higher cost of capital, the Project Finance alternative can be extensively used to find out his ownsself-sufficient in the production of oil and gas. 1 - Introduction: the present Brazilian scenario Since the second oil crisis in 1979, which led to a substantial increase inoil prices on the international market, all oil importing countries have feltacutely their dependence on OPEP and the volatile political situation in itsmember countries. In order to reduce its dependence on this fuel, Brazil, among othermeasures, invested heavily in the Pro - Alcool program, seeking to substitutepart of its energy demand. For various political, technical and economicreasons, this program has now practically ceased to exist, with alcoholconsumption reduced to an insignificant portion of the national auto fleet. In parallel with the problems faced by oil in the international market, witheffect from the eighties there began in Britain a movement towardsprivatization, with the object of reducing the role of the state. In theory, this policy allows the government to concentrate on its basic functions such ashealth, education, security etc. This movement originating in Britain has influenced many countries, developed and emerging, leading them to develop various legal and financialmechanisms to ensure that the private sector participates as executor andoperator of infrastructure products in different segments. According to the analysis made by Velasco (1), privatization's in Brazilhave been made in two phases. The first, during the Sarney, Collor and ItamarFranco governments, focused on the privatization of industrial companies, aiming at reducing the government's role as entrepreneur, passing it back tothe theoretically more agile and capable management structure of the privatesector. The second phase began with the election of President Fernando HenriqueCardoso, when privatization of public services began. At this stage, thegovernment aims at improving the quality and increasing the coverage of publicservices, only retaining responsibility for their regulation andsupervision. In Arndt's view (2), this public administration model provides considerableleverage for sustainable economic growth, ending the government's investmentcapital deficit by partnerships with the private sector and relieving the statemachine of various liabilities which are no longer in line with the opening ofthe world economy - in which only competitive organizations survive, whetherprivate or state-owned.
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