No abstract

No abstract

a b s t r a c tThis paper presents study of 115 grounding accident reports from the Safety Investigation Authority of Finland and Marine Accident Investigation Branch of the UK, as well as 163 near-miss grounding reports from ForeSea and Finnpilot incident databases. The objective was to find the type of knowledge that can be extracted from such sources and discuss the usability of accident and incident reports for evidencebased risk modeling. A new version of Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) is introduced as a framework to review the accident reports. The new positive taxonomy as Safety Factors, which are based on high level positive functions that are prerequisite for safe transport operations, is used for reviewing the incident reports. Accident reports are shown as a reliable source of evidence to extract the most significant contributing factors in the events. Mandatory incident reports are considered useful for understanding the effective barriers as risk control measures. Voluntary incident reports, though, are seen as not very reliable in their current form to be used for evidence-based risk modeling.

Ship traffic is the factor that presents in almost all of the existing grounding risk models. It is considered to be one of the main factors affecting the expected frequency of ship groundings. This is mostly accepted by experts as common sense. However, there is no research available on the actual dependency between ship traffic and grounding accidents. In this paper, we conduct a study aimed at determining the statistical dependency between the density and distribution of traffic, the number and frequency of grounding accidents and the dependency between the complexity of waterways and an actual accident. For this purpose we utilise statistical analysis of maritime traffic, obtained from Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and grounding accidents, enhanced with the expert elicitation techniques delivering the waterway complexity index. The sea area under investigation is the Gulf of Finland. The results show statistical dependency between frequency of grounding and waterway complexity as well as the traffic distribution. However, the study does not reveal any significant dependency between grounding and traffic density. K E Y

When considering the implementation of a novel risk-control option, the estimation of its possible effects often relies on expert elicitation. This article presents an expert-knowledge-based preliminary assessment of how the deployment of Enhanced Navigation Support Information navigation service would affect the ship collisions and groundings in the Gulf of Finland. Experts probabilistically assess the service's direct effects on various factors, which are then utilized in collision and grounding probability Bayesian network models. The results indicate that implementing the Enhanced Navigation Support Information service could decrease the number of accidents. However, a comparison of the model outcomes to the experts' qualitative opinions reveals some discrepancies, which suggest that the elicitation procedure or the applied models might require further improvement. Nevertheless, with the proposed Bayesian approach, the model can be updated and uncertainties in the estimates reduced after more evidences are available later from longer and wider use of the service.