AIMTo examine the epidemic of diabetes mellitus (DM) and its impact on mortality from all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD), and to test the effect of antidiabetic therapy on the mortality in United States adults.METHODSThe analysis included a randomized population sample of 272149 subjects ages ≥ 18 years who participated in the National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS) in 2000-2009. Chronic conditions (hypertension, DM and CVD) were classified by participants’ self-reports of physician diagnosis. NHIS-Mortality Linked Files, and NHIS-Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Linkage Files on prescribed medicines for patients with DM were used to test the research questions. χ2, Poisson and Cox’s regression models were applied in data analysis.RESULTSOf all participants, 22305 (8.2%) had DM. The prevalence of DM significantly increased from 2000 to 2009 in all age groups (P < 0.001). Within an average 7.39 (SD = 3) years of follow-up, male DM patients had 1.56 times higher risk of death from all-cause (HR = 1.56, 95%CI: 1.49-1.64), 1.72 times higher from heart disease [1.72 (1.53-1.93)], 1.48 times higher from cerebrovascular disease [1.48 (1.18-1.85)], and 1.67 times higher from CVD [1.67 (1.51-1.86)] than subjects without DM, respectively. Similar results were observed in females. In males, 10% of DM patients did not use any antidiabetic medications, 38.1% used antidiabetic monotherapy, and 51.9% used ≥ 2 antidiabetic medications. These corresponding values were 10.3%, 40.4% and 49.4% in females. A significant protective effect of metformin monotherapy or combination therapy (except for insulin) on all-cause mortality and a protective but non-significant effect on CVD mortality were observed.CONCLUSIONThis is the first study using data from multiple linkage files to confirm a significant increased prevalence of DM in the last decade in the United States. Patients with DM have significantly higher risk of death from all-cause and CVD than those without DM. Antidiabetic mediations, specifically for metformin use, show a protective effect against all-cause and CVD mortalities.

This study quantifies the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 across public health districts in Georgia, USA, and tests if per capita cumulative case count varies across counties. To estimate the time-varying reproduction number, Rt of SARS-CoV-2 in Georgia and its 18 public health districts, we apply the R package ‘EpiEstim’ to the time series of historical daily incidence of confirmed cases, 2 March–15 December 2020. The epidemic curve is shifted backward by nine days to account for the incubation period and delay to testing. Linear regression is performed between log10-transformed per capita cumulative case count and log10-transformed population size. We observe Rt fluctuations as state and countywide policies are implemented. Policy changes are associated with increases or decreases at different time points. Rt increases, following the reopening of schools for in-person instruction in August. Evidence suggests that counties with lower population size had a higher per capita cumulative case count on June 15 (slope = −0.10, p = 0.04) and October 15 (slope = −0.05, p = 0.03), but not on August 15 (slope = −0.04, p = 0.09), nor December 15 (slope = −0.02, p = 0.41). We found extensive community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 across all 18 health districts in Georgia with median 7-day-sliding window Rt estimates between 1 and 1.4 after March 2020.

Background: Limited data exist regarding the impact of changes in physical activity (PA) over time on ischemic stroke risk. Exploring this understudied area could help improve stroke prevention strategies and promote PA during the lifespan. Methods: We evaluated 11,089 ARIC participants recruited in 1987-9 who completed visit 3 (1993-1995). We classified PA as meeting recommendations, not meeting recommendations, or no PA. Categories of increased, decreased, stable high, and stable low PA and a continuous PA variable were also evaluated. Crude and adjusted Cox regression models were used to characterize the association of 6-year changes in PA and ischemic stroke risk. Results: Participants had a mean age of 60 years. During a median of 21 years, 762 ischemic stroke events occurred. Compared to the participants with recommended PA at both visits, those with no PA had 46% higher hazards of ischemic stroke [HR=1.46, (95%: 1.17, 1.82)], and those with recommended PA at visit 1 and no PA at visit 3 also had 37% higher hazards [HR=1.37, (95%: 1.02, 1.83)]. Participants who increased their PA from visit 1 to visit 3 had 23% lower hazard than those with stable low PA at both visits [HR =0.77, (95%: 0.63, 0.94)], while those who decreased their PA had 25% higher hazards compared to those with stable high PA at both visits [HR =1.25, (95%: 1.01, 1.54)]. Conclusions: Physical inactivity during midlife increases ischemic stroke risk, while meeting PA recommendations reduces it. Data access statement: The data can be accessed from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute’s ARIC website.

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