Citation Swain, A. (2011) Challenges for water sharing in the Nile basin: changing geo-politics and changing climate. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(4), 687-702.Abstract For most of the 20th century, the Nile River has been the source of political tensions and low-intensity conflicts among three of its major riparian countries (Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt). However, since the late 1990s, the Nile basin countries-with the encouragement and support of the international community-have made some attempts to establish basin-wide cooperative institutions. This process of engagement and collaboration is presently under severe stress due to increasing demand and decreasing supply of water resources in the basin. This situation may be complicated further by the global climate change, which is anticipated to result in long-term changes in the volume and pattern of runoff in the Nile River system. Moreover, the emergence of China as a major player in the power politics of the Nile basin has facilitated a number of unilateral initiatives for large-scale water development projects. In this context, this paper critically examines the survival and sustainability of water cooperation endeavours in the Nile basin as the river faces challenges from the global climate change and shifting regional geo-politics. Défis pour le partage de l'eau dans le bassin du Nil: évolutions géopolitiques et changement climatiqueRésumé Durant la plupart du 20ème siècle, le Nil a été la source de tensions politiques et de conflits de faible intensité entre trois de ses principaux pays riverains (l'Ethiopie, le Soudan et l'Egypte). Toutefois, depuis la fin des années 1990, les pays du bassin du Nil-avec l'encouragement et le soutien de la communauté internationale-ont fait quelques tentatives pour établir des institutions de coopération au niveau du bassin. Ce processus d'engagement et de collaboration est actuellement sévèrement bousculé en raison d'une demande croissante et de la diminution du volume des ressources en eau dans le bassin. Cette situation peut être encore compliquée par le changement climatique mondial, qui devrait entraîner des changements à long terme dans le volume et la structure de l'écoulement dans le système du Nil. En outre, l'émergence de la Chine comme acteur majeur dans le rapport de force politique du Nil a facilité un certain nombre d'initiatives unilatérales pour des grands projets de développement de l'eau. Dans ce contexte, cet article examine de façon critique la survie et la durabilité des efforts de coopération en matière d'eau dans le bassin du Nil, alors que le fleuve fait face aux défis du changement climatique et des évolutions géopolitiques régionales.

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Hydropolitics in the Nile River Basin have been dominated by Egypt, which has developed its water-related infrastructure unilaterally. As a result of Egypt's policies, relations with both Ethiopia and Sudan have deteriorated over time, increasing the potential for contentious issues to escalate into conflict. Recent population and agricultural trends have only further exacerbated already tense relations. The challenge lies in cooperation. Basinwide initiatives have been attempted, but, until recently, have largely failed. The most recent Nile Basin Initiative holds the strongest potential for establishing a basinwide framework for cooperation. Nevertheless, a subbasin model would be more appropriate and effective because it would diffuse existing tensions first without jeopardizing basinwide cooperation prematurely.

The Nile flows for 6,700 kilometres through ten countries in north-eastern Africa – Rwanda, Burundi, Zaïre/Congo, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Eritrea, Ethiopia, the Sudan, and Egypt – before reaching the Mediterranean, and is the longest international river system in the world – see Map 1. Its two main tributaries converge at Khartoum: the White Nile, which originates from Burundi and flows through the Equatorial Lakes, provides a small but steady flow that is fed by the eternal snows of the Ruwenzori (the ‘rain giver’) mountains, while the Blue Nile, which suffers from high seasonal fluctuations, descends from the lofty Ethiopian ‘water tower’ highlands. They provide 86 per cent of the waters of the Nile – Blue Nile 59 per cent, Baro-Akobo (Sobat) 14 per cent, Tekesse (Atbara) 13 per cent – while the contribution from the Equatorial Lakes region is only 14 per cent.

Recently, a substantial amount of research has been devoted to establishing that environmental destruction itself may be the cause of conflict. Conflicts may arise directly due to scarcity of resources caused by environmental destruction, and can also be the potential consequence of environmentally forced population migration. India and Bangladesh are in a long-standing dispute over the sharing of the waters of the River Ganges. Since 1975, India has been diverting most of the dry-season flow of the river to one of her internal rivers, before it reaches Bangladesh. At Farakka, this has affected agricultural and industrial production, disrupted domestic water supply, fishing and navigation, and changed the hydraulic character of the rivers and the ecology of the Delta in the down-stream areas. These trans-border human-inflicted environmental changes have resulted in the loss of the sources of living of a large population in the south-western part of Bangladesh and have necessitated their migration in the pursuit of survival. The absence of alternatives in the other parts of the country has left no other option for these Bangladeshis but to migrate into India. The large-scale migration, from the late 1970s, of these Muslim migrants into Hindu-dominated India has culminated in a number of native-migrant conflicts in the receiving society. The Indian state of Assam, which received a large proportion of these migrants, was the first to experience conflict. Conflicts between natives and migrants have now spread to other parts of India and have become a major issue for politically rising Hindu organizations. As this study determines, environmental destruction not only creates resource scarcity conflicts, it can also force the people to migrate, thus leading to native-migrant conflicts in the receiving society.