Challenges for water sharing in the Nile basin: changing geo-politics and changing climate

Abstract

Citation Swain, A. (2011) Challenges for water sharing in the Nile basin: changing geo-politics and changing climate. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(4), 687-702.Abstract For most of the 20th century, the Nile River has been the source of political tensions and low-intensity conflicts among three of its major riparian countries (Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt). However, since the late 1990s, the Nile basin countries-with the encouragement and support of the international community-have made some attempts to establish basin-wide cooperative institutions. This process of engagement and collaboration is presently under severe stress due to increasing demand and decreasing supply of water resources in the basin. This situation may be complicated further by the global climate change, which is anticipated to result in long-term changes in the volume and pattern of runoff in the Nile River system. Moreover, the emergence of China as a major player in the power politics of the Nile basin has facilitated a number of unilateral initiatives for large-scale water development projects. In this context, this paper critically examines the survival and sustainability of water cooperation endeavours in the Nile basin as the river faces challenges from the global climate change and shifting regional geo-politics. Défis pour le partage de l'eau dans le bassin du Nil: évolutions géopolitiques et changement climatiqueRésumé Durant la plupart du 20ème siècle, le Nil a été la source de tensions politiques et de conflits de faible intensité entre trois de ses principaux pays riverains (l'Ethiopie, le Soudan et l'Egypte). Toutefois, depuis la fin des années 1990, les pays du bassin du Nil-avec l'encouragement et le soutien de la communauté internationale-ont fait quelques tentatives pour établir des institutions de coopération au niveau du bassin. Ce processus d'engagement et de collaboration est actuellement sévèrement bousculé en raison d'une demande croissante et de la diminution du volume des ressources en eau dans le bassin. Cette situation peut être encore compliquée par le changement climatique mondial, qui devrait entraîner des changements à long terme dans le volume et la structure de l'écoulement dans le système du Nil. En outre, l'émergence de la Chine comme acteur majeur dans le rapport de force politique du Nil a facilité un certain nombre d'initiatives unilatérales pour des grands projets de développement de l'eau. Dans ce contexte, cet article examine de façon critique la survie et la durabilité des efforts de coopération en matière d'eau dans le bassin du Nil, alors que le fleuve fait face aux défis du changement climatique et des évolutions géopolitiques régionales.

Nile Delta exhibited a spatial reversal in the rates of shoreline retreat on the Rosetta promontory comparing pre- and post-beach protection

“…In fact, the shoreline retreat of the Rosetta promontory is expected to be exacerbated even more after the completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (also known as El-Nahda Dam) on the Blue Nile in 2017. Egypt is highly dependent on flows that originate in Ethiopia with 70% of that flow coming from the Blue Nile (Swain, 2011). With a height of 145 m and a length of 1780 m, this massive hydropower dam will be able to hold 74 billion m 3 of water and produce 6000 MW (Tesfa, 2013), which will make it the biggest dam in whole Africa and the seventh biggest in the world (Hammond, 2013).…”

Hydrological, socio-economic and reservoir alterations of Er Roseires Dam in Sudan

“…The dam acts as the "gate" of the river, the importance of which revolves around supplying water for the development of Sudan and Egypt. In addition, the study area represents one of the essential international shared-basins that should attract attention, given the many challenges facing the countries of the basin (Xu et al, 2010;Swain, 2011).…”

Dynamic political contexts and power asymmetries: the cases of the Blue Nile and the Yarmouk Rivers

“…Since Egypt is the far downstream country of the basin, its reliance on the Nile flows has historically characterized the fragile balance of the hydrologic equilibrium in the whole region. In addition, the physical attributes of the river draw a particular conformation of the water flows, due to the fact that two main tributaries account for the overall discharge of the Nile waters: the Blue Nile, which arises in Ethiopia and constitutes the 86% of the overall Nile volume (Swain 2011), and the White Nile, which proceeds from the Lake Victoria and merges with the Blue Nile north of Khartoum. Nowadays, population growth and cyclic droughts, poverty and food insecurity, pollution and environmental degradation, migration and water scarcity, overgrazing and desertification, climate change and hydraulic exploitation represent serious challenges to the effective management of Nile flows.…”