Основной целью оперативного управления строительством является рациональная организация строительного производства, которая существенным образом зависит от текущего состояния строительства. Регулирование хода строительного производства непосредственно связано с отклонениями оперативных планов и актуализированных графиков строительства, формируемых посредством организации соответствующего мониторинга. Строительство и регистрация его исполнения представляют собой сложный информационнотехнологический процесс, построение которого влияет на основные технико-экономические показатели объекта строительства: качество, стоимость и своевременность. Показаны особенности организации мониторинга и конкретное влияние его результатов на эффективность процесса оперативного управления строительным производством. Ключевые слова: оперативное управление строительным производством, актуальный график строительства, измерение объемов строительных работ, погрешность предсказания окончания строительства. The paper presents the research results of the management aspect in construction analyzing the features of monitoring organization. The main purpose of operational management of construction is the rational planning of construction production, which significantly depends on the current state of construction. The progress regulation of the construction production is directly related to the deviations from operational plans and updated construction schedules formed by means of the relevant monitoring organization. Construction and registration of its performance is a complicated information-technological process, which affects the main technical and economic indicators of the construction object, such as quality, cost and timeliness. The article shows the features of monitoring organization and the effect of its results on the efficiency of the operational management process in construction industry.

To address the relevant construction challenges, it is necessary both to improve the existing construction duration forecasting methods and to develop optimal construction management methods. That being said, effective implementation of general management functions is defined by information interaction between management subjects and objects as a system bringing together construction management stakeholders. Very often the construction practice reveals that some contractors’ statistics related to execution of works can altogether be absent or be unrepresentative. With this fact borne in mind, the authors of this material focus on using nonparametric statistic or distribution-free methods. On the other hand, the lack of representative statistical data indirectly indicates to ineffective management of the construction process. The article shows that the possible solution of the construction duration forecasting task is the methodology of neural and statistical simulation. We suggest that the efficiency of expeditious construction management should be assessed by calculating the information entropy, while regulatory action aimed at increasing managerial energy must be achieved by optimally allocating costs among the various elements oriented towards resource-based management. The presented model of improving construction duration forecasts allows the optimization of construction regulation process, which must increase its organizational and technological reliability.

Introduction: The design stage and preparations for construction include the development of construction schedules needed to justify the duration of construction works. Methods: Based on probabilistic scheduling, a multitude of solutions can be generated for each implementation roadmap (progress chart). These decisions can be defined as optimistic, most probable or likely, and pessimistic. Rational roadmaps are selected in accordance with benchmarking. Simple and discounted payback periods are used as frequently applied criteria included in the system of evaluating the economic effectiveness of investment projects. Based on identifying the given indicators of project evaluation, a method of designing probabilistic construction progress charts has been developed; the latter serve as the basis for devising respective organizational-technological solutions. Results: The design of optimistic, pessimistic, and most probable construction roadmaps (schedules or progress charts) enables the use of a developed model for probabilistic prognostication of future production risks affecting the delay of construction completion.

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