In the article the specific features of the ritual folklore of the Mongolian peoples and its role in ethnocultural educational objectives is considered on the example of folklore of the Mongolians, Kalmyks and Buryats.There are objective factors that foster a rich diversity of folklore genres that Mongolian peoples have, including, most importantly, their traditional environment, their customs and traditions, their economic and everyday life structures, and their specific spiritual and material worlds based on the nomadic lifestyles, which they try to promote. Notably, the related peoples have a number of typologically similar features and specific characteristics that distinguish them from each other. Rituals are performed in accordance to their functions; they may be associated with the family, the calendar or the traditional type of economy, etc. A great variety of rituals and ceremonies accompanying the economic activities that the Mongolian peoples were engaged in (including hunting, fishing, cattle-breeding, and agriculture), as well as their richness in the family sphere (associated with births, weddings, funerals, etc.) contributed to the production of diverse poetical forms and formulas such as magic formulas, songs, well-wishes, curses, magtal (praises), etc. * The reported in the article study was funded by RFBR and DFG, project number № 21-512-12002 ННИО_а "Prognostic methods and future scenarios in language policy -multilingual Russia as an example".

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В статье рассматриваются вопросы концепции и методологии социолингвистического прогнозирования в полиэтническом государстве, разрабатываются сценарии развития языковой политики в Российской Федерации на федеральном и региональном уровнях. В качестве эмпирического материала в статье использованы данные социолингвистического обследования проведенного в 2021 г. в Республике Тыва, Республике Дагестан, Республике Калмыкия и Приморском крае. В последние десятилетия в мире и России произошли изменения по отношению к языковому разнообразию и принципам построения языковой политики. Стала осознанной необходимость разработки новой языковой политики в России, которая отражала бы интересы государства и его граждан. Стратегическое использование социолингвистических прогностических моделей в языковой политике повышает продуктивность мер языковой политики. Основа для метода сценариев в социолингвистике заключается в создании многофакторной модели сценария, которая включает в себя типологические аспекты языковой политики. При выборе обследуемых регионов автор и его коллеги всю совокупность языковых общностей России описали по следующим моделям развития: устойчивый тип развития языка (русский), перспективный тип развития (чеченский, татарский, якутский, тувинский и т. д.), нестабильный тип развития языка (калмыцкий, карельский, языки Дагестана), слабо перспективный тип развития языка (язык тазов и др.). Анализ состояния и перспектив языкового развития в обследованных регионах в рамках многокомпонентной модели прогнозирования выстраиваивался по коррелирующим факторам. Это позволило сделать вывод о том, что наиболее оптимальным сценарием языковой политики для России представляется полилингвальная либеральная языковая политика. Ее суть заключается в том, что миноритарные и мажоритарные народы страны обучаются на родных языках, овладевая параллельно общегосударственным языком — русским языком, региональными и иностранными языками через сферу образования. Разработка подобных инструментов языковой политики — приоритетная задача современной России.

The article analyses theoretical and practical significance of language prognosis as an instrument of language policy and planning develops concepts in the language scenario field in the sphere of education. The object of the research is the languages of the Russian Federation in the sphere of education. In general, the research question of the article addresses the future of multilingualism in the Russian Federation, with a focus on the sphere of education. The objective of the article is to systematically explore the foundations for prognostic models and methods in the selected fields of language policy. We aim to develop an interdisciplinary approach to sociolinguistic prognosis on the basis of the future scenario method and, thus, to work out prognostic models and methods in language policy considering their effectiveness in regard to the language policy and planning. Furthermore, we seek to demonstrate their applicability on the basis of the language situation of the Russian Federation. In doing so, we elaborate strategies and derive from the prognostic models recommendations for the language policy in the Russian Federation, a country with an unprecedented language diversity on the Eurasian continent. Compared to the post-Soviet period, current language processes and language development in the changing Russia have been investigated, but the subjects are limited. The need for research in this area is explained by many country-specific reasons. First, it is the acceleration of minority languages' disappearance rate: at the beginning of the 20th century the position of minority languages in Russia was considered more satisfactory than in many countries of the world (Australia, the USA, etc.), while now they are all in varying stages of language shift. Second, the functional distribution between Russian and the national / minority languages is changing nowadays. Third, the recent amendments to the Federal Law "On the Education in the Russian Federation" adopted in 2018 have significantly changed the educational landscape of Russia. Fourth, there are hot societal debates about the current language policy and its measures. The theme is of high societal relevance: the development of prognostic methods and models in the language policy of the Russian Federation, taking into account the latest research in this area and the practical experience of other countries, is important for public policy planning and effective regulation of the interethnic relations in the Russian Federation.

The article considers the methodological basis of sociolinguistic research into language perspectives with a focus on linguistic diversity in the Russian Federation, the study of which is closely connected with such sociolinguistic concepts as language situation, language policy and language planning. Оver the recent decades, sociolinguistics has witnessed a real boom in new research showing a growing variety of methods for studying linguistic diversity. Closer consideration of these papers shows that the authors focus on the search for tools to analyze the prerequisites, history and current situation of linguistic diversity. However, research methods for the future development of linguistic diversity – linguistic forecasting, lack for scientific representation. Analysis of the prospects for the development of languages in present-day conditions is no less relevant research topic. The identification of the laws of language development requires a comprehensive approach from the position of sociolinguistics, which leads to the multifaceted nature of scientific research, the consideration of the object not only from the linguistic point of view, but also from sociolinguistic, psycholinguistic, ethnolinguistic etc. factors. The authors present an overview of sociolinguistic methods. As part of a combination of methods, which is justified by the variety of goals and subjects of linguistic forecasting, the authors analyze some possible methods of sociolinguistic forecasting (parametric, statistical, discursive) and their practical application in the study of linguistic diversity. The article concludes with forecasts for linguistic diversity in the Russian Federation.