Two main concepts studied in machine learning theory are generalization gap (difference between train and test error) and excess risk (difference between test error and the minimum possible error). While information-theoretic tools have been used extensively to study the generalization gap of learning algorithms, the information-theoretic nature of excess risk has not yet been fully investigated. In this paper, some steps are taken toward this goal. We consider the frequentist problem of minimax excess risk as a zero-sum game between algorithm designer and the world. Then, we argue that it is desirable to modify this game in a way that the order of play can be swapped. We prove that, under some regularity conditions, if the world and designer can play randomly the duality gap is zero and the order of play can be changed. In this case, a Bayesian problem surfaces in the dual representation. This makes it possible to utilize recent information-theoretic results on minimum excess risk in Bayesian learning to provide bounds on the minimax excess risk. We demonstrate the applicability of the results by providing information theoretic insight on two important classes of problems: classification when the hypothesis space has finite VC-dimension, and regularized least squares.

Evaluating the performance of machine learning models under distribution shift is challenging, especially when we only have unlabeled data from the shifted (target) domain, along with labeled data from the original (source) domain. Recent work suggests that the notion of disagreement, the degree to which two models trained with different randomness differ on the same input, is a key to tackle this problem. Experimentally, disagreement and prediction error have been shown to be strongly connected, which has been used to estimate model performance. Experiments have lead to the discovery of the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon, whereby the classification error under the target domain is often a linear function of the classification error under the source domain; and whenever this property holds, disagreement under the source and target domain follow the same linear relation. In this work, we develop a theoretical foundation for analyzing disagreement in high-dimensional random features regression; and study under what conditions the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon occurs in our setting. Experiments on CIFAR-10-C, Tiny ImageNet-C, and Camelyon17 are consistent with our theory and support the universality of the theoretical findings.