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In the hierarchical control paradigm of a smart grid cyber-physical system, decentralized local agents (LAs) can potentially be compromised by opportunistic attackers to manipulate electricity prices for illicit financial gains. In this paper, to address such opportunistic attacks, we propose a Dirichlet-based detection scheme (DDOA), where a Dirichletbased probabilistic model is built to assess the reputation levels of LAs. Initial reputation levels of the LAs are first trained using the proposed model, based on their historical operating observations. An adaptive detection algorithm with reputation incentive mechanism is then employed to detect opportunistic attackers. We demonstrate the utility of our proposed scheme using data collected from the IEEE 39-bus power system with the PowerWorld simulator.Index Terms-Cyber-physical system security, smart grid, opportunistic attack, intrusion detection, smart electricity market, Dirichlet-based reputation.

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Building an efficient, smart, and multifunctional power grid while maintaining high reliability and security is an extremely challenging task, particularly in the ever-evolving cyber threat landscape. The challenge is also compounded by the increasing complexity of power grids in both cyber and physical domains. In this article, we develop a stochastic Petri net based analytical model to assess and analyze the system reliability of smart grids, specifically against topology attacks under system countermeasures (i.e., intrusion detection systems and malfunction recovery techniques). Topology attacks, evolving from false data injection attacks, are growing security threats to smart grids. In our analytical model, we define and consider both conservative and aggressive topology attacks, and two types of unreliable consequences (i.e., system disturbances and failures). The IEEE 14-bus power system is employed as a case study to clearly explain the model construction and parameterization process. The benefit of having this analytical model is the capability to measure the system reliability from both transient and steady-state analysis. Finally, intensive simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of our proposed model.