International audienceInvasive alien species are among the primary causes of biodiversity change globally, with the risks there of broadly understood for most regions of the world. They are similarly thought to be among the most significant conservation threats to Antarctica, especially as climate change proceeds in the region. However, no comprehensive, continent-wide evaluation of the risks to Antarctica posed by such species has been undertaken. Here we do so by sampling, identifying, and mapping the vascular plant propagules carried by all categories of visitors to Antarctica during the International Polar Year's first season (2007-2008) and assessing propagule establishment likelihood based on their identity and origins and on spatial variation in Antarctica's climate. For an evaluation of the situation in 2100, we use modeled climates based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Scenario A1B [Nakicenovic N, Swart R, eds (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK)]. Visitors carrying seeds average 9.5 seeds per person, although as vectors, scientists carry greater propagule loads than tourists. Annual tourist numbers (∼33,054) are higher than those of scientists (∼7,085), thus tempering these differences in propagule load. Alien species establishment is currently most likely for the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Recent founder populations of several alien species in this area corroborate these findings. With climate change, risks will grow in the Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Sea, and East Antarctic coastal regions. Our evidence-based assessment demonstrates which parts of Antarctica are at growing risk from alien species that may become invasive and provides the means to mitigate this threat now and into the future as the continent's climate changes

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity almost exclusively occurs in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of 21 st century climate change on ice-free areas under two IPCC climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, icefree areas could expand by over 17,000 km 2 by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the impacts on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesise that they could eventually lead to increasing regional scale biotic homogenisation, the extinction of less competitive species and the spread of invasive species.

These datasets and accompanying syntheses provide a greater understanding of fundamental ecosystem processes in the Southern Ocean, support modelling of predator distributions under future climate scenarios and create inputs that can be incorporated into decision making processes by management authorities. In this data paper, we present the compiled tracking data from research groups that have worked in the Antarctic since the 1990s. The data are publicly available through biodiversity.aq and the Ocean Biogeographic Information System. The archive includes tracking data from over 70 contributors across 12 national Antarctic programs, and includes data from 17 predator species, 4060 individual animals, and over 2.9 million observed locations.Scientific Data | (2020) 7:94 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0406-x www.nature.com/scientificdata www.nature.com/scientificdata/ circum-Antarctic synthesis yet exists that crosses species boundaries. This deficiency prompted the Expert Group on Birds and Marine Mammals (EG-BAMM) and the Expert Group on Antarctic Biodiversity Informatics (EGABI) of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR; www.scar.org) to initiate in 2010 the Retrospective Analysis of Antarctic Tracking Data (RAATD). RAATD aims to advance our understanding of fundamental and applied questions in a data-driven way, matching research priorities already identified by the SCAR Horizon Scan 9,21 and key questions in animal movement ecology 22 . For these reasons, we worked on the collation, validation and preparation of tracking data collected south of 45 °S. Data from over seventy contributors (Data Contacts and Citations 23 ) were collated. This database includes information from seventeen predator species, 4,060 individuals and over 2.9 million at-sea locations. To exploit this unique dataset, RAATD is undertaking a multi-species assessment of habitat use for higher predators in the Southern Ocean 24 .RAATD will provide a greater understanding of predator distributions under varying climate regimes, and provide outputs that can inform spatial management and planning decisions by management authorities such as the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR; www.ccamlr.org). Our synopsis and analysis of multi-predator tracking data will also highlight regional or seasonal data-gaps.Scientific Data | (2020) 7:94 | https://doi.