Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat

Lee, Jasmine; Raymond, Ben; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Chadès, Iadine; Fuller, Richard A.; Shaw, Justine; Terauds, Aleks

doi:10.1038/nature22996

Cited by 323 publications

(263 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…The greatest future warming by the end of the 21st century was predicted in the Atlantic/Indian region, supporting recent findings of rapid climate change and sea‐ice melt already observed in the West Antarctic Peninsula (Mulvaney et al, ; Vaughan et al, ). Similarly, model predictions of sea‐ice melt are consistent with previous Antarctic temperature‐index melt modelling (Lee et al, ) and observational records of the greatest melting to date off the West Antarctic Peninsula (Meredith & King, ). Krill declines predicted by the model align with recent experimental and observational research showing slower krill growth and higher mortality at warmer temperatures (Kawaguchi et al, ) and are consistent with recent models that predict future declines in krill in the Scotia Sea under an RCP8.5 warming scenario (Klein et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change

Tulloch

Plagányi

Brown

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

127

119

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Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures—historical commercial whaling and future climate change—on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate–biological coupled “Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments” (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice‐associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change

Tulloch

Plagányi

Brown

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

127

119

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“…This phenomenon is already described for the Arctic tundra (Lang et al., ). Such community shifts could lead to regional‐scale biotic homogenization, which is a threat for Antarctic ice‐free habitats (Lee et al., ) and could alter ecosystem functioning and productivity (Clavel, Julliard, & Devictor, ). However, we stress that the response of individual organisms cannot fully reflect the entire community response for the selected ecozone.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Antarctic lichens acclimatize to changes in temperature?

Colesie

Büdel

Hurry

et al. 2017

Global Change Biology

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The Antarctic Peninsula, a tundra biome dominated by lichens and bryophytes, is an ecozone undergoing rapid temperature shifts. Such changes may demand a high physiological plasticity of the local lichen species to maintain their role as key drivers in this pristine habitat. This study examines the response of net photosynthesis and respiration to increasing temperatures for three Antarctic lichen species with different ecological response amplitudes. We hypothesize that negative effects caused by increased temperatures can be mitigated by thermal acclimation of respiration and/or photosynthesis. The fully controlled growth chamber experiment simulated intermediate and extreme temperature increases over the time course of 6 weeks. Results showed that, in contrast to our hypothesis, none of the species was able to down-regulate temperature-driven respiratory losses through thermal acclimation of respiration. Instead, severe effects on photobiont vitality demonstrated that temperatures around 15°C mark the upper limit for the two species restricted to the Antarctic, and when mycobiont demands exceeded the photobiont capacity they could not survive within the lichen thallus. In contrast, the widespread lichen species was able to recover its homoeostasis by rapidly increasing net photosynthesis. We conclude that to understand the complete lichen response, acclimation processes of both symbionts, the photo- and the mycobiont, have to be evaluated separately. As a result, we postulate that any acclimation processes in lichen are species-specific. This, together with the high degree of response variability and sensitivity to temperature in different species that co-occur spatially close, complicates any predictions regarding future community composition in the Antarctic. Nevertheless, our results suggest that species with a broad ecological amplitude may be favoured with on-going changes in temperature.

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“…According to Lee et al . () this pause in the warming trends is part of the short‐term natural climate variability and they anticipate new warming phases across the Antarctic Peninsula during this century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

In situ warming in the Antarctic: effects on growth and photosynthesis in Antarctic vascular plants

et al. 2018

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The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a rapid warming in the last decades. Although recent climatic evidence supports a new tendency towards stabilization of temperatures, the impacts on the biosphere, and specifically on Antarctic plant species, remain unclear. We evaluated the in situ warming effects on photosynthesis, including the underlying diffusive, biochemical and anatomical determinants, and the relative growth of two Antarctic vascular species, Colobanthus quitensis and Deschampsia antarctica, using open top chambers (OTCs) and gas exchange measurements in the field. In C. quitensis, the photosynthetic response to warming relied on specific adjustments in the anatomical determinants of the leaf CO transfer, which enhanced mesophyll conductance and photosynthetic assimilation, thereby promoting higher leaf carbon gain and plant growth. These changes were accompanied by alterations in the leaf chemical composition. By contrast, D. antarctica showed no response to warming, with a lack of significant differences between plants grown inside OTCs and plants grown in the open field. Overall, the present results are the first reporting a contrasting effect of in situ warming on photosynthesis and its underlying determinants, of the two unique Antarctic vascular plant species, which could have direct consequences on their ecological success under future climate conditions.

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Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat

Cited by 323 publications

References 70 publications

Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change

Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change

Can Antarctic lichens acclimatize to changes in temperature?

In situ warming in the Antarctic: effects on growth and photosynthesis in Antarctic vascular plants

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