The paper examined the nexus between fiscal deficit and public debt in Nigeria. Public debt was disaggregated into domestic and external debt with a view to analyzing the causal relationship and relative effect of both categories of debt on fiscal deficit. Time series data were collected from Statistical Bulletins published by the Central Bank of Nigeria from 1970 to 2011. Except for inflation rate that was I(0), the unit root test results revealed stationarity of fiscal balance, public debt and its components, income, exchange rate and rate of interest series at their first difference; they are I(1) series. Pair-wise Granger causality results support bi-directional relationship between fiscal balance and public debt as well as its domestic component while causality run only from external debt to fiscal deficit. Johansen cointegration results also confirmed the existence of cointegrating relationships at 5 per cent level of significance. In addition, error correction estimates revealed that fiscal balance had significant positive relationship with debt in Nigeria in both the short and long run. The results showed that 1 per cent increase in public debt resulted in an increase of 1.85 per cent in fiscal deficit. In addition, 1 per cent increase in fiscal deficit resulted into 0.08 per cent increase in public debt. The paper further confirmed that domestic debt has greater impact on fiscal deficit than external debt. The paper concluded that the Nigerian government should consider appropriate mix of domestic debt and external debt as a mean of financing budget deficit.
The study assessed household vulnerability to climate change and its effect on yam and cassava production in Oyo state, Nigeria. Primary and secondary data were used for the study. Data on yam and cassava yield between 1990 and 2009 were obtained from the Oyo State Agricultural Development Programme (ADP) while data on climate variables between 1976 and 2010 were obtained from the Nigeria Institute of Meteorology, Oshodi. Primary data on the components of vulnerability that is adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure were also obtained from cassava and yam farmers using structured questionnaire to assess their vulnerability to climate change. Multistage sampling technique was employed to select 120 respondents across the three agro-ecological zones of the study area. This was done by purposively selecting five farm villages in each of the three agro-ecological zones in the study area and randomly selecting eight farmers from each of the villages. Trend, regression and principal component analytical tools were used to analyze data collected. The integrated vulnerability assessment approach was adopted using the vulnerability indicator. The result showed that the mean annual temperature and mean annual sunshine hour have been increasing by an average of 0.012oC (p<0.01) and 0.004 hours (p<0.01) per year respectively. This confirms the occurrence of global warming in the study area. The study revealed that sunshine hour significantly (p<0.05) affected yam yield. Household's vulnerability to climate change in the three agro ecological zones as measured by the vulnerability index (VI) was found to be highest in the derived savannah (VI=-0.99) followed by the savannah (VI=0.46) and lowest in the rain forest (VI=0.53). The derived savannah zone recorded the highest vulnerability with a relatively low proportion of the population having access to quality home (2.5%), insecticide (30%), fertilizer (30%), improved seedlings (30%), road (15%), health services (15%), primary and secondary schools (15%), veterinary services (0.03%), food market (42.5%), and microfinance institutions (0.03%). The study recommended among others that crop-breeding researchers should work towards developing improved varieties of cassava and yam that can cope with future expected change in climate. Also, integrated rural development schemes aimed at increasing access to basic social amenities should be established by the government with the cooperation of the residents as this will improve adaptive capacity and thereby reduce vulnerability of farmers to climate change in the study area.
The study examined the asymmetric relationship between exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic performance in Nigeria covering the period between 1986Q1 and 2019Q4. The Non-linear Generalised Autoregressive Distributive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model was employed. The study was motivated as a result of periodic increase in exchange rate of naira to a dollar and instability of macroeconomic variables in the economy. The presence of Autoregressive Distributive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) effect established the use of non-linear GARCH models which showed that volatility was persistent over the period of study. Consequently, the result revealed that exchange rate volatility exhibited a positive relationship with trade balance, industrial output and inflation in the study period. Thus, good news prevailed more over bad news in the foreign exchange market. The study therefore recommended that monetary authorities in Nigeria should regulate exchange rate and macroeconomic variables in order to control the general price level in the economy.
Using yearly data from 1986 to 2020, the study looked at whether the Nigeria's financial sector development is connected to the country’s ever increasing crude oil exports. The results of the utilized Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model demonstrated that, both in the short and long periods, there is no connection between Nigeria's financial sector development and crude oil exports. Additionally, the research indicated that the country's financial system is not yet adequately established to sustain exports of goods other than crude oil in the short term.
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