The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Understanding processes driving mortality in forests is important for comprehension of natural stand dynamics and for informing natural disturbance-based ecosystem management. There has been considerable study of mortality in forests during the self-thinning phase but we know much less about processes driving mortality in stands at later successional stages. We addressed this through study of five 1-ha spatially explicit permanent plots in mature (111-186 yr old in 2012) Pinus contorta stands in the Canadian Rocky Mountains using data from repeated measurements over a 45-yr period, dendrochronological information, and point pattern analysis. We tested the hypothesis that these stands had completed the self-thinning/density-dependent mortality stage of succession. Contrary to our expectations, the self-thinning phase can persist for more than 140 yr following stand establishment. Our findings suggest this was attributable to prolonged post-fire establishment periods due to surface fires in three of the plots while in the other two plots moist conditions and slow growth most likely delayed the onset of competition. Several pieces of evidence indicated the importance of density-dependent mortality in these stands over the study period: (1) The diameter distribution of individuals changed from initially right-skewed toward normality as a result of mortality of smaller-diameter stems. (2) Individuals of lower canopy positions were proportionally more affected by mortality. (3) When compared to the pre-mortality pattern, surviving stems in all stands had an increasingly uniform spatial distribution. In two of the plots, recent windthrow and/or ingrowth initially hindered our ability to detect density-dependent mortality but our dendrochronological sampling and permanent plot data allowed us to untangle the different processes at play; in doing so we demonstrate for the first time how density-independent processes can mask underlying density-dependent mortality processes in older stands. Mortality of larger dominant canopy trees increased over the study period and mortality of dominant stems was a random process in all stands suggesting these stands were approaching the end of the self-thinning stage and that density-independent processes might soon become more important. Our results provide an improved understanding of mortality processes that can be applied to natural disturbance-based ecosystem management.

Soil life supports the functioning and biodiversity of terrestrial ecosystems. Springtails (Collembola) are among the most abundant soil arthropods regulating soil fertility and flow of energy through above- and belowground food webs. However, the global distribution of springtail diversity and density, and how these relate to energy fluxes remains unknown. Here, using a global dataset representing 2470 sites, we estimate the total soil springtail biomass at 27.5 megatons carbon, which is threefold higher than wild terrestrial vertebrates, and record peak densities up to 2 million individuals per square meter in the tundra. Despite a 20-fold biomass difference between the tundra and the tropics, springtail energy use (community metabolism) remains similar across the latitudinal gradient, owing to the changes in temperature with latitude. Neither springtail density nor community metabolism is predicted by local species richness, which is high in the tropics, but comparably high in some temperate forests and even tundra. Changes in springtail activity may emerge from latitudinal gradients in temperature, predation and resource limitation in soil communities. Contrasting relationships of biomass, diversity and activity of springtail communities with temperature suggest that climate warming will alter fundamental soil biodiversity metrics in different directions, potentially restructuring terrestrial food webs and affecting soil functioning.

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