Subglacial lakes beneath the Vatnajö kull ice cap in Iceland host endemic communities of microorganisms adapted to cold, dark and nutrient-poor waters, but the mechanisms by which these microbes disseminate under the ice and colonize these lakes are unknown. We present new data on this subglacial microbiome generated from samples of two subglacial lakes, a subglacial flood and a lake that was formerly subglacial but now partly exposed to the atmosphere. These data include parallel 16S rRNA gene amplicon libraries constructed using novel primers that span the v3-v5 and v4-v6 hypervariable regions. Archaea were not detected in either subglacial lake, and the communities are dominated by only five bacterial taxa. Our paired libraries are highly concordant for the most abundant taxa, but estimates of diversity (abundance-based coverage estimator) in the v4-v6 libraries are 3-8 times higher than in corresponding v3-v5 libraries. The dominant taxa are closely related to cultivated anaerobes and microaerobes, and may occupy unique metabolic niches in a chemoautolithotrophic ecosystem. The populations of the major taxa in the subglacial lakes are indistinguishable (499% sequence identity), despite separation by 6 km and an ice divide; one taxon is ubiquitous in our Vatnajö kull samples. We propose that the glacial bed is connected through an aquifer in the underlying permeable basalt, and these subglacial lakes are colonized from a deeper, subterranean microbiome.

Glacier runoff and melt from volcanic and geothermal activity accumulates in glacier dammed lakes in glaciated areas around the world. These lakes eventually drain, creating hazardous subglacial floods that are usually only confirmed after they exit the glacier and reach local river systems, which can be many tens of kilometres from the flood source. Once in the river systems, they travel rapidly to populated areas. Such delayed detection represents a potentially lethal shortcoming in early-warning. Here we demonstrate how to advance early-warning potential through the analysis of four such floods in a glaciated region of Iceland. By comparing exceptional multidisciplinary hydrological, GPS and seismic ground vibration (tremor) data, we show that array analysis of seismic tremor can be used for early location and tracking of the subglacial flood front. Furthermore the timing and size of the impending flood can be estimated, prior to it entering the river system. Advanced warnings of between 20 to 34 hours are achieved for large (peak discharge of more than 3000 m3/s, accumulation time of ~ 5.25 years) to small floods (peak discharges from 210 to 380 m3/s, accumulation times of ~ 1.3 years) respectively.

The volume of glaciers in Iceland (∼3,400 km3 in 2019) corresponds to about 9 mm of potential global sea level rise. In this study, observations from 98.7% of glacier covered areas in Iceland (in 2019) are used to construct a record of mass change of Icelandic glaciers since the end of the 19th century i.e. the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in Iceland. Glaciological (in situ) mass-balance measurements have been conducted on Vatnajökull, Langjökull, and Hofsjökull since the glaciological years 1991/92, 1996/97, and 1987/88, respectively. Geodetic mass balance for multiple glaciers and many periods has been estimated from reconstructed surface maps, published maps, aerial photographs, declassified spy satellite images, modern satellite stereo imagery, and airborne lidar. To estimate the maximum glacier volume at the end of the LIA, a volume–area scaling method is used based on the observed area and volume from the three largest ice caps (over 90% of total ice mass) at 5–7 different times each, in total 19 points. The combined record shows a total mass change of −540 ± 130 Gt (−4.2 ± 1.0 Gt a−1 on average) during the study period (1890/91 to 2018/19). This mass loss corresponds to 1.50 ± 0.36 mm sea level equivalent or 16 ± 4% of mass stored in Icelandic glaciers around 1890. Almost half of the total mass change occurred in 1994/95 to 2018/19, or −240 ± 20 Gt (−9.6 ± 0.8 Gt a−1 on average), with most rapid loss in 1994/95 to 2009/10 (mass change rate −11.6 ± 0.8 Gt a−1). During the relatively warm period 1930/31–1949/50, mass loss rates were probably close to those observed since 1994, and in the colder period 1980/81–1993/94, the glaciers gained mass at a rate of 1.5 ± 1.0 Gt a−1. For other periods of this study, the glaciers were either close to equilibrium or experienced mild loss rates. For the periods of AR6 IPCC, the mass change rates are −3.1 ± 1.1 Gt a−1 for 1900/01–1989/90, −4.3 ± 1.0 Gt a−1 for 1970/71–2017/18, −8.3 ± 0.8 Gt a−1 for 1992/93–2017/18, and −7.6 ± 0.8 Gt a−1 for 2005/06–2017/18.

[1] The subglacial, geothermal lake beneath the Western Skaftá cauldron (depression) in the Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, was accessed by hot water drilling through the overlying 300 m-thick ice shelf. Most of the ca. 100-m water column was near 4.7°C, but was underlain by a distinct $10 m-deep water mass at 3.5°C. The sensible heat content of the lake water is approximately twice the potential energy dissipated in outburst floods, and the temperature of the lake may be an important factor in the development of subglacial water courses of jökulhlaups from the lake. The lake temperature is higher than the temperature of maximum density, implying that convective heat transfer can take place in the lake. The vertical temperature structure suggests a large-scale recirculating flow in the lake, the rate of which was estimated from the lake temperatures and the chemical composition of a water sample. Citation: Jóhannesson, T.,

ABSTRACT. GPS campaigns on glaciers during jökulhlaups show how subglacial floods affect glacier motion and shed light on the dynamics of such floods. Three such campaigns have been carried out on southern and western Vatnajökull, southeast Iceland, over known jökulhlaup paths. Two slowly rising jökulhlaups from Grímsvötn and two rapidly rising jökulhlaups from the western and eastern Skaftá cauldrons were captured in these campaigns, with maximum discharge ranging from 240 to 3300 m 3 s −1. Glacier surface movements measured in these campaigns are presented along with the corresponding discharge curves. The measurements are interpreted as indicating: (1) initiation of rapidly rising jökulhlaups with a propagating subglacial pressure wave, (2) decreased glacier basal friction during jökulhlaups, (3) subglacial accumulation of water in slowly rising jökulhlaups and (4) lifting of the glacier caused by subglacial water pressure exceeding overburden in both rapidly and slowly rising jökulhlaups. The latter two observations are inconsistent with assumptions that are typically made in theoretical and numerical modelling of jökulhlaups. Both viscous and elastic deformation of the glacier as well as turbulent hydraulic fracture at the ice/bedrock interface are important in the dynamics of the subglacial pressure wave at the front of rapidly rising jökulhlaups.