This paper analyses the cost competitiveness of different electrified propulsion technologies for the German auto market in 2020. Several types of hybrid electric vehicles including parallel hybrids (with and without external charging) and a serial range extended electric vehicle are compared to a conventional car with SI engine, a full battery electric vehicle and a hydrogen powered fuel cell vehicle. Special focus lies on the maintenance and repair cost and the expected resale value of alternative vehicles, which have been integrated within one extensive total cost of ownership model. The assessment shows that the current TCO gaps for alternative drivetrains will decrease significantly by 2020 mainly driven by the reduction in production cost. Furthermore hybrid electric vehicles will profit from lower maintenance and repair cost and a higher expected resale value compared to conventional cars. Therefore, hybrid electric vehicles will be an attractive option in particular for users with high annual mileages, who can benefit from the low operating cost of EVs in combination with unlimited driving range. The analysis concludes that there will not be one dominant powertrain design in the midterm future. Hence, automakers have to manage a wide portfolio of competing drivetrain architectures, which will increase the risk and complexity of strategic decisions.

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Based on a detailed analysis on how the availability of charging infrastructure influences the technical suitability of electric vehicles for customer needs, we assess critical paths and probable outcomes for the future composition of the German passenger vehicle fleet. In three different market scenarios several technical as well as political options for developing the German market towards a low carbon fleet are analyzed. Eventually, a comparison between the assumptions made and the German political goals regarding the number of electric vehicles on the road is given.

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