Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40–69 years in Europe. Methods and results  We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65–0.68) to 0.81 (0.76–0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion  SCORE2—a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations—enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

No abstract

No abstract

Background Researchers and activists have expressed concerns over the lack of availability and nonuse of reversible, modern, contraceptive methods in India for decades. New attempts to increase access, availability, and acceptance of reversible contraceptives need to be developed, instead of relying solely on female sterilization. Mobile health (mHealth) initiatives may offer one way to serve underprivileged populations who face challenges in sexual and reproductive health (SRH) in countries such as India. Objective This study aimed to examine the outcome of an mHealth intervention for enhancing knowledge of, and practices related to, reversible contraceptives in rural Western India. Methods We implemented a nonrandomized controlled trial (before-and-after study in an intervention area and a control area) in the Indian state of Maharashtra. The intervention in this case was a mobile-based SRH helpline provided by a nongovernmental organization (NGO). Baseline and follow-up surveys were carried out in two government-run primary health center areas, one each in the intervention and control area, and 405 respondents were surveyed in the two rounds. An interview-based structured questionnaire suitable for a low-literacy environment was used to collect data. The effect of the intervention was estimated using logistic regression, adjusted for gender, by calculating robust standard errors to take into account the clustering of individuals by the area (intervention or control). In each regression model, the effect of intervention was estimated by including a term for interaction between the intervention area and the period before and after the intervention. The exponent of the regression coefficient of the interaction term corresponding to the period after the intervention, along with the 95% CI, is reported here. The odds ratio for the control village multiplied by this exponent gives the odds ratio for the intervention village. Calls received in the intervention were recorded and their topics analyzed. Results The current use of reversible contraception (18% increase in intervention area vs 2% increase in control area; 95% CI) has seen changes. The proportion of respondents who had heard of contraception methods from an NGO rose in the intervention area by 23% whereas it decreased in the control area by 1% (95% CI). However, the general level of awareness of reversible contraception, shown by the first contraceptive method that came to respondents’ mind, did not improve. Demand for wider SRH information beyond contraception was high. Men and adolescents, in addition to married women, made use of the helpline. Conclusions A mobile helpline that one can confidentially approach at a time most convenient to the client can help provide necessary information and support to those who need reversible contraception or other sexual health information. Services that integrate mHealth in a context-sensitive way to other face-to-face health care services add value to SRH services in rural India.