GPS results from 25 stations in Macedonia measured in 1996 and 2000 show that Macedonia moves SSE relative to Eurasia essentially as a single crustal piece along with parts of westernmost Bulgaria. Geological studies show active N-S normal faults and two NNW-striking right-lateral faults in western Macedonia, and NW-trending left-lateral faults SE Macedonia, with a region in central Macedonia essentially devoid of active faults. Distribution of seismic activity supports the geological studies. However, the GPS results cannot discriminate the active faulting, except perhaps in the northern part of Macedonia in the Skopje and adjacent areas, where active~NS extension occurs. Slip-rates on the strike-slip faults must be low, in the range of 0-2 mm/year. There is a progressive increase in GPS velocities southward in northern Greece toward the North Anatolian fault zone, across which the velocities increase and change direction dramatically. D
The seismic sequence of November 2019 in Albania culminating with the Mw = 6.4 event of 26 November 2019 was examined from the geodetic (InSAR and GNSS), structural, and historical viewpoints, with some ideas on possible areas of greater hazard. We present accurate estimates of the coseismic displacements using permanent GNSS stations active before and after the sequence, as well as SAR interferograms with Sentinel-1 in ascending and descending mode. When compared with the displacements predicted by a dislocation model on an elastic half space using the moment tensor information of a reverse fault mechanism, the InSAR and GNSS data fit at the mm level provided the hypocentral depth is set to 8 ± 2 km. Next, we examined the elastic stress generated by the Mw = 7.2 Montenegro earthquake of 1979, with the Albania 2019 event as receiver fault, to conclude that the Coulomb stress transfer, at least for the elastic component, was too small to have influenced the 2019 Albania event. A somewhat different picture emerges from the combined elastic deformation resulting after the two (1979 and 2019) events: we investigated the fault geometries where the Coulomb stress is maximized and concluded that the geometry with highest induced Coulomb stress, of the order of ca. 2–3 bar (0.2–0.3 MPa), is that of a vertical, dextral strike slip fault, striking SW to NE. This optimal receiver fault is located between the faults activated in 1979 and 2019, and very closely resembles the Lezhe fault, which marks the transition between the Dinarides and the Albanides.
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