Predictive models that accurately emulate complex scientific processes can achieve speed-ups over numerical simulators or experiments and at the same time provide surrogates for improving the subsequent analysis. Consequently, there is a recent surge in utilizing modern machine learning methods to build data-driven emulators. In this work, we study an often overlooked, yet important, problem of choosing loss functions while designing such emulators. Popular choices such as the mean squared error or the mean absolute error are based on a symmetric noise assumption and can be unsuitable for heterogeneous data or asymmetric noise distributions. We propose Learn-by-Calibrating, a novel deep learning approach based on interval calibration for designing emulators that can effectively recover the inherent noise structure without any explicit priors. Using a large suite of use-cases, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in providing high-quality emulators, when compared to widely-adopted loss function choices, even in small-data regimes.

With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account for the stochasticity of models is challenging, it is common to augment predictions with confidence intervals to convey the expected variations in a model's behavior. We require prediction intervals to be well-calibrated, reflect the true uncertainties, and to be sharp. However, existing techniques for obtaining prediction intervals are known to produce unsatisfactory results in at least one of these criteria. To address this challenge, we develop a novel approach for building calibrated estimators. More specifically, we use separate models for prediction and interval estimation, and pose a bi-level optimization problem that allows the former to leverage estimates from the latter through an uncertainty matching strategy. Using experiments in regression, time-series forecasting, and object localization, we show that our approach achieves significant improvements over existing uncertainty quantification methods, both in terms of model fidelity and calibration error.

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